Brexit: Implications and outlook [What Think Tanks are Thinking]

Written by Marcin Grajewski,

Uncertainty about the future relations between the European Union and the United Kingdom has contributed to turbulence on financial markets and in European politics, following the country’s vote by referendum on 23 June to leave the EU. The new British Prime Minister, Teresa May, detailed some of her plans in a speech at the Conservative Party conference in October 2016, indicating that the UK would invoke the Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union by March 2017, a move needed for a member state to leave the Union.

There is still lack of clarity on crucial aspects of the UK’s departure, such as whether it wishes to remain part of the EU’s single market or customs union, what the impact may be on EU’s and the UK’s economies and how the country’s Parliament may be involved in process of leaving the EU.

This note offers links to recent commentaries and reports published by major international think tanks and other research centres in response to the UK referendum. More studies on issues raised by the vote can be found in a previous edition of ‘What Think Tanks are thinking’ in July 2016

Beyond hard, soft and no Brexit
Bruegel, October 2016

Which model for Brexit?
Centre for European Policy Studies, October 2016

Why the 27 are taking a hard line on Brexit
Centre for European Reform, October 2016

How to ensure UK and European financial services continue to thrive after Brexit
Open Europe, October 2016

Theresa May’s reckless gamble on a “hard” Brexit
Peterson Institute for International Economics, October 2016

Brexit, the pound and the UK current account
Bruegel, October 2016

What future for the EU after Brexit?
Centre for European Policy Studies, October 2016

Is Europe drifting towards a hard Brexit?
Bruegel, October 2016

The UK trade landscape after Brexit
Chatham House, October 2016

What consequences would a post-Brexit China-UK trade deal have for the EU?
Bruegel, October 2016

After Brexit: A new association agreement between Britain and Europe
Policy Network, October 2016

Brexit could lift all boats, if the EU will let it
Heritage Foundation, October 2016

The lessons of Brexit: how British and European leaders can deal with the disruption
Friends of Europe, October 2016

Fall in pound shows sovereignty’s limits
Chatham House, October 2016

British Brexiters call the shots
German Marshall Fund, October 2016

All or nothing? European and British strategic autonomy after the Brexit
Egmont, September 2016

EU financial market access after Brexit
Centre for European Policy Studies, September 2016

Brexit Britain: The poor man of Western Europe?
Centre for European Reform, September 2016

Growth and the euro after Brexit
Jacques Delors Institute, September 2016

The City will decline and we will be the poorer for it
Bruegel, September 2016

The economics of Brexit: It’s not about the internal market
Centre for European Policy Studies, September 2016

What do EU capital markets look like post-Brexit?
New Financial, September 2016

How Brexit opens a window of opportunity for treaty reform in the EU
Jacques Delors Institute, September 2016

Giving meaning to Brexit
Open Europe, September 2016

Brexit will make Britain’s mediocre economic record worse
Centre for European Reform, September 2016

Brexit: An impossibly complex task for the UK’s new  trade negotiators?
Peterson Institute for International Economics, September 2016

The impact of Brexit on the EU budget: A non-catastrophic event
Centre for European Policy Studies, September 2016

The border after Brexit: How technology can help secure Britain’s borders
Adam Smith Institute, September 2016

How to build a more flexible EU after Brexit
Carnegie Europe, September 2016

Merkel keeping one eye on Britain’s “UK first” approach
European Council on Foreign Relations, September 2016

Can the EU survive without Britain?
Carnegie Europe, September 2016

Brexit: What have we learned so far?
Rand, September 2016

Europe after Brexit: A proposal for a continental partnership
Bruegel, August 2016

Leaving the European Union, the Union way: A legal analysis of Article 50 TEU
Swedish Institute for European Policy Studies, August 2016

Brexit: impact across policy areas
House of Commons Library, August 2016

Brexit: Free movement of persons
Shearman and Sterling, August 2016

The EU Single Market: The value of membership versus access to the UK
Institute for Fiscal Studies, August 2016

Ein Brexit ohne Schotten und Nordiren? Großbritannien droht der Staatszerfall: Hintergründe und Auswege
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, August 2016

Brexit: Limiting the damage
German Marshall Fund, August 2016

What next after Brexit? Immigration and integration in post-referendum Britain
British Future, August 2016

Immigration and integration after Brexit: A policy exchange agenda
Policy Exchange, August 2016

Nordeuropa nach dem Brexit-Votum: Die fünf nordischen Länder stellen ihre Beziehungen zur EU auf den Prüfstand
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, August 2016

Die Visegrád-Staaten und der Brexit: Im östlichen Mitteleuropa herrscht Sorge angesichts des britischen EU-Austritts
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, August 2016

Brexiting into uncharted waters: British referendum initiates complex exit negotiations and perhaps renewal of the European Union
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, August 2016

Catch of today: A ten-point plan for British fishing
Adam Smith Institute, August 2016

Boris Johnson the counter-revolutionary
European Council on Foreign Relations, August 2016

What does Brexit mean for the EU’s Area of Freedom, Security and Justice?
Centre for European Policy Studies, July 2016

Economic implications of a United Kingdom Exit from the European Union
Congressional Research Service, July 2016

Brexit and the future of the United Kingdom
Istituto Affari Internazionali, July 2015

One step removed? Six possible futures for the UK’s economic relationship with the EU
Institute for Public Policy Research, July 2016

Rebooting Britain: Making the most of Brexit
Adam Smith Institute, July 2016

The impact of Brexit on the City and the British economic model
Policy Network, Foundation for European Progressive Studies, July 2016

Rising inequality in the UK and the political economy of Brexit
Foundation for European Progressive Studies, July 2016

Beyond free movement? Six possible futures for the UK’s EU migration policy
Institute for Public Policy Research, July 2016

The elements of a new EU-UK relationship
Institute of International and European Affairs, July 2016

Brexit : Les opportunités d’une Europe sans Royaume-Uni
Terra Nova, July 2016

The case for the (interim) EEA option
Adam Smith Institute, July 2016

One step removed? Six possible futures for the UK’s economic relationship with the EU
Institute for Public Policy Research, July 2016

The EU after Brexit, Russia and the countries in-between
European Policy Centre, July 2016

Rebooting Britain: Making the most of Brexit
Adam Smith Institute, July 2016

¿Quién liderará la UE post-Brexit? El retorno de la política a Bruselas
Barcelona Centre for International Affairs, July 2016

Brexit or not? What consequences for the enlargement policy?
European Policy Centre (Czech), July 2016

What does Brexit mean for TTIP?
German Development  Institute, July 2016

Visit the European Parliament homepage on Brexit negotiations.