The multidimensional nature of the emerging threats necessitates new approaches to peace and security, merging conventional notions of power with new scientific methods, including foresight, to assess the impact of variables such as natural resources, demographics and technology in the formulation of policy. In the words of the EU Global Strategy (EUGS), ‘we live in a world of predictable unpredictability’ (see Figure 3). Already in 2019, before the outbreak of Covid 19, the report on Global Trends to 2030 by the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System suggested that the EU was facing a moment of choice between strategic action and strategic inaction . Envisioning a new relationship with the United Kingdom (UK), recalibrating the partnership with the United States (US) and dealing with China’s global role, population movements, disruptive technologies, and accelerating climate change has brought pressure to bear on the EU to provide for a concrete and targeted EU external action response.
Threats to peace and security in the current global environment
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