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Prospects for EU economic recovery [What Think Tanks are thinking]

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Written by Marcin Grajewski.

Uncertainty is growing over the recovery of the European economy from the recession generated by the Covid-19 pandemic. The European Commission has painted an optimistic growth scenario in its most recent forecast, with the economy expected to expand by 5 per cent and 4.3 per cent in 2021 and 2022 respectively. However, an increasing number of analysts see the potential for growth dampened by new restrictions in the run-up to Christmas this year given a fourth/fifth wave of the pandemic currently gripping Europe, compounded by the discovery of a new variant of the coronavirus. Higher inflation, partly resulting from high energy prices and disrupted supply chains, is also seen as a threat to the economy of the euro area and the wider EU, as are high public debt levels in many countries.

This note gathers links to recent publications and commentaries from many international think tanks on the state of the European economy and on debates on how to reform it.

How robust is the EU recovery?
Centre for European Policy Studies, November 2021

A transatlantic divide? Transitory inflation in Europe but persistent in the US
Centre for European Policy Studies, November 2021

Rethinking EU economic governance: The Stability and Growth Pact
European Policy Centre, November 2021

Why the EU’s recovery fund should be permanent
Centre for European Reform, November 2021

Instruments of a strategic foreign economic policy
Bruegel, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, DIW Berlin, November 2021

Including home-ownership costs in the inflation indicator is not just a technical issue
Bruegel, November 2021

Fiscal arithmetic and risk of sovereign insolvency
Bruegel, November 2021

Next Generation EU borrowing: A first assessment
Bruegel, November 2021

The new euro area inflation indicator and target: The right reset?
Bruegel, November 2021

Does money growth tell us anything about inflation?
Bruegel, November 2021

Growth and inflation after the pandemic in the EU
Bruegel, November 2021

Is the risk of stagflation real?
Bruegel, November 2021

Covid-19 financial aid and productivity: Has support been well spent?
Bruegel, November 2021

Zu den Verteilungseffekten der derzeit hohen Inflationsraten
Ifo Berlin, November 2021

Rethinking EU economic governance: The Stability and Growth Pact
European Policy Centre, November 2021

How can the CMU and Banking Union contribute to European sovereignty and economic recovery?
Confrontations Europe, November 2021

Reinventing the European banking sector
Institut Montaigne, November 2021

Supply chain disruptions: The risks and consequences
Rand Corporation, November 2021

How Germany’s coalition negotiations could change the EU’s political landscape
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, November 2021

Keynesian supply shocks and Hayekian secondary deflations
Ludwig von Mises Institute, November 2021

Don’t let up: The EU needs to maintain high standards for its banking sector as the European economy emerges from the Covid-19 pandemic
Bruegel, October 2021

Germany’s post-pandemic current account surplus
Bruegel, October 2021

The European energy price spike: Overcoming the fossil fuel crisis
Jacques Delors Institute, October 2021

Why have Europe’s energy prices spiked and what can the EU do about them?
Centre for European Reform, October 2021

Rising energy prices: What European solutions?
Fondation Robert Schuman, October 2021

The consequences of ‘modern monetary theory’
Confrontations Europe, October 2021

Purchasing power suffers from inflation such as ketchup and toothpaste
Itinera, October 2021

Inflation in the euro area: Factors mostly have only a temporary effect, but risk of prolonged elevated inflation remains
DIW, October 2021

The effects of natural disasters on price stability in the euro area
DIW, October 2021

Fiscal rules in a post-Covid brave new world: No need to sprint
Centre for European Policy Studies, October 2021

Climate action and Europe’s fiscal debate: Politics and possibilities
E3G, October 2021

Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2021: Crisis is gradually being overcome – align action with lower growth
Ifo, September 2021

Ifo Economic Forecast Autumn 2021: Supply bottlenecks in manufacturing slow overall economic recovery
Ifo, September 2021

Monetary arithmetic and inflation risk
Bruegel, September 2021

Remote work, EU labour markets and wage inequality
Bruegel, September 2021

The pandemic’s uncertain impact on productivity
Bruegel, September 2021

Brexit and European finance: Prolonged limbo
Bruegel, September 2021

Can climate change be tackled without ditching economic growth?
Bruegel, September 2021

Euroraum im Herbst 2021
Institut für Weltwirtschaft Kiel, September 2021

Arbeitsintensive Unternehmen sind ein Katalysator für Geldpolitik und ihre Verteilungseffekte
DIW, September 2021

A revised European Semester under centralised management: The risk of overlooking social policy
Egmont, September 2021

EU employment dynamics: The pandemic years and beyond
European Trade Union Institute, September 2021

Options for inclusive post-pandemic labour markets
Migration Policy Institute, September 2021

The rising cost of housing
Centre for European Policy Studies, July 2021

Europe shouldn’t worry about inflation
Centre for European Reform, July 2021

Will European Union recovery spending be enough to fill digital investment gaps?
Bruegel, July 2021

Recovery and resilience: A first assessment
Lisbon Council, July 2021

Reforming the European Stability Mechanism: Too much but never enough
Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, July 2021

How can a reform of the Stability and Growth Pact foster sound fiscal policies?
Centre for European Policy, June 2021


Read this briefing on ‘Prospects for EU economic recovery‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.

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