Complacency, however, would be misplaced, because the transformation to a sustainable and carbon-neutral energy system represents an unprecedented and difficult endeavour at both EU and global levels. Climate and energy policies have profound and potentially disruptive consequences on societies and economies – and geopolitical considerations are never far away. The EPRS CONE report explored precisely what would be the risks of reverting to complacency scenario and of neglecting further ambitious action beyond 2030 and up to 2050. The EPRS report estimated that EU will face large environmental, social, political and economic costs and the results showed that a successful transformation can only happen if Member States act together. As shown in Figure 2, the net zero scenario of ambitious and united EU action, modelling EU energy system decarbonisation by 2050, is much more successful in reducing EU GHG emissions than alternative scenarios, including the status quo (baseline), fragmentation driven by low ambition, and ‘muddling through’.
Potential adverse environmental impact of fragmentation (land use, land-use change, and forestry are not included)
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