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I am writing after reading (for the third time) your “Future Shocks 2023: Anticipating and Weathering the Next Storms” paper. First, we are pleased to know that work is being done in this area. Organisations have been historically not great at exploring potential scenarios that might occur. Because of this, too many organisational structures, regardless if they are government, not-for-profits, or for profit businesses, typically find themselves in a bad position. The entire purpose of exploring potential scenarios is to be able to be ready. The work that has been done on this paper is a good start, but sadly, is overlooking several crucially important things that could result in mis-direction, wasted time and resources, and a decreasing level of alignment between EU member states.
When I first read the paper, I did put a comment on the site, hoping to stimulate a conversation about what the paper says, and does not say. I did that on 26 August, and sadly, no one else has commented on the paper or what I had said. Here is the comment I wrote:
August 26, 2023 at 12:51
Clearly, Securing energy supply in Europe is critical but these proposed policy decisions are based on a series of assumptions and beliefs that may or may not be accurate and relevant. This is because the Policy Responses (in the first diagram) do not identify the action steps that will comprise the responses. Because of this, what is missing is the reality that some (or many) of the action steps will exacerbate the risks as well as some of the other actions to be demonstrated to become the responses. By identifying the action steps, as well as the cause-and-effect relationships between them, it would enable policy decisions to be tested before decisions are implemented. This is a critical step to ensure that ‘what we do’ and ‘how we do it’ will not result in new and additional risks, some of which could be even worse than are currently seen.
Here are several examples of what I am talking about. Sadly, the attachments that I had sent you are not able to be put into this reply form apparently. I would be happy to send them to you separately if you wish to receive them. The attachments are important as they graphically demonstrate the dynamics at play that can, and will continue to, impact the ability of the EU Policy Responses to be effective.
POLICY RESPONSES (identified in the paper and their interelationships)
In this example, we have, using an Interrelationship Digraph format, looked at the driving relationships between the Policy Responses identified in the paper. One of the central reasons to utilise this format when looking at a set of Policy Responses is that often, responses are identified but the number of them precludes all the responses being able to be implemented with the same level of required effort. Consequently, Policy Responses are prioritised. By looking at the driving relationships between all of the responses, it is possible to see where the leverage lies, so that the item(s) that have the strongest driving relationships will be the ones prioritised. In this example, there really are only two responses that exhibit strong driving relationships. The paper – Future Shocks 2023 – does not illuminate which of the Policy Responses will provide the greatest leverage, hence the reason to attach this exhibit for you. And an important note: we are not sure how the list of Risks and the list of Policy Responses were developed, but we believe that there are other substantial risks at play, and as this graphic shows, the number and selection of Policy Responses might warrant re-examination.
CENTRIPETAL V. CENTRIFUGAL FORCES and their impact Limiting Success
In this attachment, it is possible to see the cause and effect relationships between the variables associated with having and sustaining Peace and Stability. This ‘picture’ shows the dynamics at play that impact a government’s ability to achieve and sustain peace and stability for its populace, and at the same time, identifies some key limiting factors that can (and will) make the peace and stability disappear over time.
RESOLUTION OF REGIONAL CONFLICTS
This graphic identifies the variables that impact a population group’s (a government) willingness to keep stability in a regional environment. After the conflict in Ukraine, the graphic was shown to be even more viable when looking at the potential for conflict resolution. The text is red identifies specific variable impacts due to Russia’s action. Again, by looking at the cause-and-effect relationships between variables, it is possible to identify where the leverage lies in order to achieve and retain stability.
THE IMPACT OF GAMING THE SYSTEM
This set of diagrams were used to explain the dynamics at play when a government decided to make a policy decision based on only looking at what they wanted to accomplish. By only looking at the intended outcome, the unintended consequences of a policy decision can result in outcomes that are the opposite of what was intended. This diagram is important as in the Future Shock 2023 paper, and highlighted in my comment to the paper, the reality that what is being used to show how the Policy Responses will “offset” many of the Risks, but what is not being looked at are the individual actions that would comprise each Policy Response and what the unintended consequences of implementing them could be on the Risks, individually and/or collectively.
My intent of sending this email is not to pummel you with diagrams that you may or may not agree with, or understand. My intent was to demonstrate that whilst the Future Shock 2023 paper is a clear example that there are multiple risks that can, and will, negatively impact the EU and its member states, before decisions are implemented on ways to offset the risks, we need to consider the question of “what else might happen if we implement these Policy Responses?”
And just to be clear, whilst I am a British citizen, I have been a legal resident of Spain since long before the UK foolishly decided to leave.
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Companies that commit corruption crimes are lobbying the European Union.The big corruption network of the Criminal Swedish state and Telia Sonera – current Telia Company AB, through its subsidiary in the Republic of Azerbaijan, Azercell Telecom, Fintur Holdings B.V have committed terrorism, torture, human rights abuses, corruption, money laundering, tax evasion, crimes against our family. has experienced violence, torture, fear and anxiety against my elderly mother, my three baby daughters and the mother of my daughters for seven months.
the beating to death of my father with cancer, the beating of my elderly mother, the fear of my three young children, the homelessness of the cold in November.In order to cover up the crimes in 2018, Telia Company AB is selling its stake Azercell Telecom, Fintur Holdings B.V to the Azerbaijani state-owned AZINtelecom 221 million euros. In fact, the real price is a billion euros.
Why do you hinder the fight against the big corruption network of the Criminal Swedish state and Telia Company AB that caused tragedy to our family? Does it comply with these laws when corruption, terror and vandalism are committed against my family? I defend my rights.Telia Company AB lobbies the European Union and allocates 350,000 euros a year. See the link: https://lobbyfacts.eu/representative/3d05593e9b174adf9deef2c2b9066a21/telia-company-ab.
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