Figure 1 – Potential added value growth under various scenarios

In a pessimistic worst-case scenario, where the policy response is fragmented and where no risk-sharing takes place, potential added value growth would be reduced by 0.8 % in 2035. For 2020 to 2035, this would represent a cumulated €2.9 trillion of added value losses for the EU as a whole compared to the initial baseline. In a more optimistic scenario, we assume a decisive move towards more sustained common action at EU level. As a result, potential added value growth is initially less impacted and the common action boosts long-term growth prospects to levels surpassing the estimates from the baseline scenario. For 2020 to 2035, such a scenario would represent a cumulated gain of €0.5 trillion of added value for the EU as a whole compared to the initial baseline.