European EV scenarios for 2030

Four scenarios for 2030 were developed based on the survey input from 10 policy experts on the European electric vehicle industry. The survey was conducted in June and July 2024 and the policy experts surveyed were selected from among the stakeholders and experts that authored the works summarised above. The ‘cutting-edge Europe’, ‘overdependence’ and ‘slow electrification’ scenarios were formulated based on their hopes, fears and expectations for the industry by 2030. A final ‘sanctions spiral’ scenario was based on potential wildcard events suggested by the policy experts. Here, most policy experts underscored elements of a scenario in which Chinese hostilities against Taiwan led to a severing of EV supply chains with China. Figure 2 provides an overview of the four scenarios.