Monitoring the EU economic outlook_novembre_2024 – V2_GW1 – GDP growth

The economic recovery from the pandemic and the energy crisis is progressing at a subdued pace. The EU economy is expected to grow by 0.9 % this year, 1.5 % in 2025 and 1.8 % in 2026. GDP growth has failed expectations, with projections downgraded marginally, mostly driven by the effects of tighter financing conditions and weaker external demand on investment and exports. Households are prioritising savings, owing to low consumer confidence and uncertainty about future income, and private consumption is weighing on growth. Business activity faces sustained high energy costs and an uncertain global economic environment. Some Member States’ manufacturing export-oriented growth model has come under pressure. In addition to the significant impact of the energy price shock on input costs, EU industries are increasingly exposed to competition with China, with the latter’s export market shares growing continuously, built on investment-centric policies creating domestic overcapacity.