A study on the cost of accession, conducted by Michael Emerson for the International Centre for Defence Studies (ICDS), calculates the costs of Ukraine’s potential membership, estimating them to amount to €18.9 billion a year – as opposed to the €36.7 billion annually that is reportedly mentioned in the Council analysis. In total, the cost would be €132.3 billion over 7 years. Furthermore, a study by the Hertie School Jacques Delors Centre estimated that the accession of Ukraine, Moldova and the six Western Balkan countries would lead to total additional spending for the EU budget of approximately €19 billion per year, i.e. some €133 billion over a 7-year period. Finally, a study by the Brussels-based Bruegel think-tank estimates that, in their baseline scenario, the net cost of Ukraine’s EU membership for the EU-27 would amount to €137 billion in the 2021 2027 period – about €19.5 billion per year. The estimates vary owing to differences in scope and methodological approaches: some even exclude additional CAP expenditure, and conclude that incorporating all current candidate and potential candidate countries, except Türkiye, would be possible at an annual cost of €15.7 billion (see Figure 1).
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