Timeline and pathways

Apart from clarifying the timeline, Figure 3 also visualises the nature of pathways towards the various scenarios. The pathways towards European NATO and EU Defence Union start with a disruption from the status quo, suggesting the new US President will decide to disengage from NATO. The pathways towards Antagonism and Patchwork consist of continuing cooperation through NATO, but in opposite ways, either by enhancing NATO or by diluting it. In terms of scenario methodology, these options (enhancement, dilution or disruption) represent the main options of what are called ‘archetypal scenarios’. The pathways towards Cooperative co-existence are more complex and will be discussed below.