EU population projections

According to Eurostat, as of 1 January 2024 the EU population was 449.2 million, an increase of 1.65 million year on year. While the EU has experienced steady population growth for over 50 years, this trend has slowed down in recent decades and even halted during the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, migration can no longer offset the decrease in population due to fewer births and increased mortality. Eurostat estimates suggest a 6 % decrease in the EU population by 2100 (baseline scenario). Reducing or stopping immigration would lead to an even more drastic population decline by 2100 (17 % or 33 %, respectively) (see Figure 1 below). Demographic trends vary significantly across regions, even within Member States, with rural areas experiencing a more pronounced population decline compared to urban centres. For instance, in 2019, rural regions were losing more people through natural change (the difference between live births and deaths over a specific period) and gaining fewer people through immigration compared to predominantly urban regions.