The IPCC estimated the maximum amount of cumulative net emissions that would result in limiting global warming to 1.5 °C and 2 °C – the carbon budget. To limit global warming to 1.5 °C with a 50 % likelihood by 2100, there is a remaining carbon budget of 500 gigatonnes of CO2 (GtCO2) from 2020 onwards. The UNFCCC further determined that, if all NDCs 2.0 were implemented, the remaining 1.5 °C carbon budget from 2030 onwards would be around 70 GtCO2, as shown in Figure 2. This corresponds to approximately two years of projected global emissions by 2030. The NDC 3.0 targets from Brazil, Canada, Japan and the UK would take up 17 % of this remaining post-2030 budget (36 % if including the US), while the Parties concerned were only responsible for around 7.5 % of global emissions in 2022 (19.2 % if including the US).
NDC 3.0 share of the remaining global post-2030 carbon budget
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