AI has the potential to revolutionise multiple sectors of the economy and spheres of life. The Brookings Institution famously stated that ‘Whoever leads in artificial intelligence in 2030 will rule the world until 2100.’ While AI has a myriad of possible geopolitical impacts, some major ones are as follows. The leaders in AI will not only benefit from enormous economic gains and enhanced military capability but will also set norms, standards and technology trends for the rest of the world. Researchers also see that AI has the potential to exacerbate divides both within and between countries, due to the unequal distribution of related benefits and knowhow.AI is also likely to redefine global supply chains and revolutionise warfare. Furthermore, it may change the balance of power between states, as their responses to challenges posed by AI and their ability to reap benefits from it are likely to play a key role in their international standing. AI’s critical nature has made it the frontier of global geopolitical competition, especially between the US and China. Most observers agree that the US remains the global leader in AI (also due to the rise in generative AI), but that the distance dividing it from China is narrowing. A 2022 Joint Research Centre report ranks the EU third in economic terms, but argues that its distance from the US and China is shorter than often suggested. However, while the EU is strong in regulating AI, this is not supported by funding, particularly from the private sector (see Figure 3).
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