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‘Radar’ tool helps EU policy-makers plan for the future

Written by Risto Nieminen,

Radar of future European events

Radar of future European events

Things change. In the European political environment and in the world in general, society has lately changed faster than ever before. Volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA) have increased considerably. Today’s challenges are increasingly fast-moving, interconnected, and complex.

Policy-makers nevertheless need solid information on which to base legislation. A systematic approach to scanning and analysing future risks and opportunities increases the accuracy and effectiveness of legislative processes.

How can policy-makers keep ahead of the cycle? Anticipating and preparing for future events is essential for proactive, as opposed to reactive, policy-making. Moreover, contingency planning often assumes a return to the status quo following disruptive events, such as the 2008 financial crisis; when in the current complex environment this may not always be the case.

It is obviously impossible to predict future events with certainty. Nevertheless, the Members of the European Parliament may turn to the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS) for advice. The EPRS has developed a ‘radar approach‘, a first step in a process that provides policy-makers with new conceptual tools for anticipating future challenges and planning effective strategies to respond.

The ‘radar approach’ expands on the ‘classical’ linear presentation of possible future events, to provide a visual image that uncovers the links between a large number of seemingly non-related issues. The concept connects information such as long-term trends analysis and scientific foresight, and combines it with short- to medium-term political risks and opportunities. Members can use the tool to navigate uncertainty in the global environment, and to better understand the interconnectedness of complex events, and the current and future environment more generally.

Future developments of the ‘radar’ could include scenario building and stress testing – another powerful tool to explore the future, based on assumptions regarding the factors that drive development.

Do you have a view on elements that should be included in this new policy-making tool? Please feel free to tell us – leave a comment below.

 

About EAVA

The European Parliament's European Added Value Unit provides European Added Value Assessments and Cost of Non-Europe Reports which analyze policy areas where common action at EU level is absent but could bring greater efficiency and a public good for European citizens.

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The content of all documents (and articles) contained in this blog is the sole responsibility of the author and any opinions expressed therein do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Parliament. It is addressed to the Members and staff of the EP for their parliamentary work. Reproduction and translation for non-commercial purposes are authorised, provided the source is acknowledged and the European Parliament is given prior notice and sent a copy. Copyright © European Union, 2014. All rights reserved

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