The OECD has confirmed the above trend with an unprecedented drop in its composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to a trend six to nine months ahead. During March and April, its CLIs for the euro area crashed by 4.9 %, while during the 2008 crisis it took 11 months (from March 2008 to April 2009) for a drop of the same magnitude to occur. In April 2020, the OECD quantified the initial impact of Covid-19 containment measures on economic activity. It expects declines in the level of output of 20-25 % in many economies, with consumers’ expenditure potentially tumbling by around one-third, and each month of lockdown causing a loss of up to 2 percentage points of GDP. Production of capital goods, already acutely affected (see Figure 3), confirms this historical collapse in output and indicates an uncertain recovery. The June update forecast GDP in the euro area would contract by 9 % in 2020 in case of a single wave, and by as much as 11.5 % if there were to be a second hit.
Volume of industrial production, 2015 = 100
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