The multidimensional nature of the emerging threats necessitates new approaches to peace and security, merging conventional notions of power with new scientific methods, including foresight, to assess the impact of variables such as natural resources, demographics and technology in the formulation of policy. In the words of the EU Global Strategy (EUGS), ‘we live in a world of predictable unpredictability’ (see Figure 2). Already in 2019, before the outbreak of Covid-19, the ESPAS report suggested that the EU is facing a moment of choice between strategic action and strategic inaction. Only a year ago, the trends brought about by Brexit, a shift in United States (US) foreign policy, the rise of China, population movements, technology, and climate change, were already outlining a scenario for even more concrete and targeted EU external action.
Threats to peace and security in the current global environment
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