Logistics and planning have always been key factors in successful defence, as illustrated by Napoleon’s defeat in Russia or the Battle of the Bulge at the end of the Second World War. Logistics have historically been tightly knit with transport innovations that disrupt the conduct of warfare. These range from the use of horses as a main means of military transport and high-end warfare, to steam ships and rail, up to contemporary technologies such as (semi) autonomous transport systems. Predictive maintenance technologies are increasingly deployed, using connected sensors to anticipate when components in systems such as aircraft or engines will become defective.14 AI-enabled analyses can also be used to identify safe locations (e.g. for landing, evacuation and supply) and to calculate supply needs and inventory. These technologies cumulate into benefits for human, financial and natural resources while reducing the element of surprise. However, as the connectivity of critical infrastructure increases, so do vulnerabilities to cyber-attacks targeting communication channels. For example, fast progress on AI-enabled software trained to automatically defend against cyber-attacks and even retaliate is already impacting the way cyber warfare is led.
Defence disruptions by domain
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