Evolution of prices and convergence in the gas sector

In the gas sector, the annexed study estimated that greater integration of the gas market will likely produce important economic benefits from price effects and from increased security of supply, estimating a maximum benefit from price effects (price of gas, and price of flexibility) of up to €30 billion per year over the 2015-2030 period. Looking at changes in the integration of the EU gas sector since 2015 by using the dispersion of gas prices between Member States as a proxy indicator, one can deduce that only a small progress has been made (see Figure 8). Therefore, it is assumed that the total amount of €30 billion to be realised progressively until 2030 could be discounted by half the amount corresponding to the linear evolution from 2015 to 2020, representing €5 billion. Furthermore, it is concluded that around €25 billion of benefits per year could still be progressively achieved in this area. As no estimation is available beyond 2030, it is assumed that this amount also corresponds to the long term benefit.