Developments in EU defence under the current Commission

A highly (if not the most) anticipated event on the EU defence agenda for 2022 is the endorsement of the Strategic Compass by the European Council, expected on 24-25 March. It will outline initiatives to enhance the EU’s capacity to act in defence and to develop strategic autonomy, based on four areas referred to as ‘baskets’: crisis management, resilience, capabilities and partnerships. According to the media and leaked versions of the document, it will establish an ‘EU rapid deployment capacity’ by 2025 to be able to ‘swiftly deploy a modular force of up to 5 000 troops’.
The Strategic Compass will play a significant part in the building of a common EU strategic culture, a subject of long debate, particularly since President Macron’s Sorbonne speech. Based on a joint threat analysis carried out in late 2020 by the Member States, the compass should reconcile divergences between Member States over what constitute priorities for EU action in security and defence. The actions proposed in the final agreement should also further build solidarity, by taking concrete steps for the implementation of relevant Treaty articles such as Article 42(7) (mutual assistance clause) of the Treaty on European Union (TEU) but also options for flexible action (e.g. Article 44 TEU). The European Defence Summit, possibly to be held in February, should help Member States move forward on key questions raised by the Strategic Compass process.
The Commission President outlined three additional proposals in her 2021 State of the Union address: a joint situational awareness centre to support collective decision making; a waiver on value-added tax for all military and defence equipment manufactured in Europe to boost interoperability by supporting European industry; and a European cyber-defence policy. On the latter, the 2022 Commission work programme announces a European cyber-resilience act. It also includes a roadmap on security and defence technologies, a non-legislative proposal aiming to enhance synergies and boost the EU’s technological autonomy in the defence sector, complementing the defence component of the 2021 action plan on synergies between civil, defence and space industries. Industrial aspects of defence have been featuring higher on the EU agenda since the creation of a Directorate-General for Defence Industry and Space (DEFIS) under the current Commission and the launch of the EDF. Ongoing talks on establishing a defence innovation hub within the European Defence Agency (EDA) aim to place the EU on a par with the US and NATO in defence industrial innovation.
EU-US relations in security and defence are also likely to evolve following the visit of US President Biden to Europe in spring 2021, and the EU-US Summit. The first EU-US high-level dialogue on security and defence could now take place in 2022, while as of November 2021, EU defence ministers have tasked the EDA with negotiating an administrative arrangement (AA) with the US Department of Defense (DoD).