EPRS Admin By / February 1, 2022

Real GDP growth in the EU Member States 2021 forecast

Real GDP growth in the EU Member States, 2021 forecast, annual change as a %

Real GDP growth in the EU Member States, 2021 forecast, annual change as a %

As mentioned in the introduction to this chapter, the EU enjoyed a strong economic rebound in 2021, based on the vaccination programme and the reopening of the economy. The reopening of the economy was underpinned, in turn, mainly by an increase in private consumption (3.5 % compared with -7.3 % the previous year) and investment (5.5 % compared with -6.3 % in 2020) as well as by a positive contribution from net exports, which itself is the result of growth among the EU’s major trading partners, as well as in global trade. The figures for the euro were somewhat less pronounced, with 3.2 % for private consumption and 5.2 % for investment.
Going forward, private consumption is set to further increase by 5.5 % in 2022 and 2.3 % in 2023 in the EU while increasing at a similar pace in the euro area (5.5 % in 2022 and 2.2 % in 2023). Investment should be supported by the accommodative monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) and projects implemented in the context of the Next Generation EU (NGEU) instrument and the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). At the same time, firms’ weaker financial positions (e.g. debt burdens) induced by the crisis, and a possible increase in corporate insolvencies, will dampen corporate investment. As a result, investment is projected to grow a bit less, i.e. by 4.8 % in 2022 (4.4 % in the euro area) and 4.1 % in 2023 (3.9 % in the euro area). Lastly, exports in the EU are forecast to increase by 7.2 % (7.3 % in the euro area) in 2022 and 5.3 % (5.2 %) in 2023.


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