Written by Rebecca Zamponi.
On 26 February 2025, the EU held a video-conference call to prepare for the upcoming special European Council meeting on 6 March 2025, dedicated to EU defence and Ukraine. They were briefed by the French President, Emmanuel Macron, on his recent visit to Washington and his talks with United States President Donald Trump.
Background
An international summit in support of Ukraine took place on 24 February, on the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and was attended by 40 leaders, both online and in person. The President of the European Council, António Costa, stated: ‘We were here with you from day one. We stand – and we will stand – with you, side by side, shoulder to shoulder. In the war, in future peace negotiations, in the reconstruction and as a Member State of the European Union.’ Costa also emphasised that any peace agreement had to be a durable one, based on Ukraine’s conditions and concrete security guarantees – showing that the lessons from previous agreements in Budapest and Minsk had been learnt.
On 24 February, EU foreign affairs ministers agreed a 16th package of sanctions, targeting 48 persons and 35 entities responsible for actions undermining or threatening the sovereignty of Ukraine; the ‘shadow fleet’ (74 additional vessels added); trade (a third of the entities targeted are Russian, the rest are located in third countries such as China and Türkiye and have been involved in the circumnavigation of trade restrictions); transport; and energy. The package also included trade sanctions against Belarus – which mirror the sanctions against Russia – and trade sanctions against Crimea and Sevastopol as well as the non-government controlled areas of Ukraine in the oblasts of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia, and a transaction ban on credit or financial institutions outside Russia using the Central Bank of Russia’s ‘System for Transfer of Financial Messages’.
The video-conference meeting
The video-conference meeting (the first such meeting of the European Council since 17 October 2023) was the initiative of President Costa. As opposed to previous European Council video-conference meetings, there were no written conclusions, no remarks from the President, no press conference, and no statement from EU leaders. The meeting seems to have aimed at preparing the 6 March special European Council meeting, which makes this video-conference unique, as previous European Council meetings have usually been prepared by the General Affairs Council.
Macron’s meeting with Trump: Following his meeting with the US President, Donald Trump, President Macron stated in an interview that there was a lot of convergence between the presidents, notably on the importance of peace in Ukraine. However, Macron reiterated a number of times the importance of a truce, followed by negotiations and a viable deterrent: ‘We need something substantial for Ukraine, for Europe and its security, and for the US and its credibility’. Macron pointed to the ceasefire in 2014, which was repeatedly violated by Russia, while Europe and the US did not react. Macron also presented plans from France and the United Kingdom to send peacekeeping troops as a presence to maintain peace and security, adding that a number of EU leaders would be willing to join such an agreement but they needed assurances from the US on the consequences in case of a Russian attack. Another aspect of Macron’s meeting with Trump was aimed at underlining the importance for both sides of avoiding a trade war between the EU and the US. Macron noted that the transatlantic partners needed to work together and that tariffs would hinder European leaders’ ability to increase defence spending (a US demand); moreover, he emphasised that it was not in the interest of the US to have a trade war with both the EU and China simultaneously. However, Trump announced during his first cabinet meeting that European products will be taxed at 25 %, the same rate as Canada and Mexico.
Preparation of the special European Council meeting on 6 March: The upcoming meeting will focus on two main areas, EU defence and support to Ukraine. The President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, will have an exchange of views with the members of the European Council. EU leaders will discuss strengthening EU defence, building on the outcome of their informal EU leaders’ retreat on defence, and the video-conference meeting of 26 February. The Polish Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, announced on 25 February that a group of European leaders would meet with the UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, in London to discuss ‘joint defence plans’ on 2 March. This will follow Starmer’s own visit to Washington on 27 February. This meeting will feed into the European Council discussions. According to a tweet from the Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, the meeting also aimed to promote the creation of a European security and defence area. It is expected that the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, will present a plan with options for scaling up EU arms production and defence capabilities. The publication of the Commission’s white paper on defence has been pushed back until 19 March. On the issue of financing EU defence, the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, welcomed the Commission’s proposal to exclude defence spending from the EU’s budget rules. The move has also been backed by Portugal.
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, will hold an in-person discussion on Ukraine with the European Council during lunch. President Zelenskyy’s attendance at the meeting will follow his trip to Washington on 28 February, where he is due to meet President Trump and potentially finalise a deal on US access to Ukrainian minerals. While the security guarantees for Ukraine in the minerals deal are reported to be vague, Trump stated that ‘we will be on the land and that way there is going to be automatic security, because nobody is going to be messing around with our people’. Costa’s invitation letter for the 6 March meeting states that the ‘EU and its Member States are ready to take more responsibility for Europe’s security. We should therefore be prepared for a possible European contribution to the security guarantees that will be necessary to ensure a lasting peace in Ukraine.’ This suggests that the Europeans do not see themselves as the sole security guarantors of Ukraine. Trump has repeatedly said that Europeans should shoulder the majority of the responsibility for Ukrainian security, and at his recent cabinet meeting he stated that ‘I’m not going to make security guarantees beyond very much. We’re going to have Europe do that because it’s in – we’re talking about Europe is their next-door neighbour.’
The High Representative, Kaja Kallas, is due to present a new initiative to step up the EU’s military support for Ukraine. The initiative was ‘broadly supported’ by foreign affairs ministers, but the details and specific numbers are due to be discussed and decided by the European Council at the 6 March meeting. The leaders of the Nordic-Baltic 8 and Ukraine met in Kyiv on 24 February and issued a joint statement reiterating their continued support for Ukraine and stating that they must increase their support. The leaders pledged to: i) provide more support to Ukraine (particularly air defence and ammunition); ii) invest more in Ukraine’s defence industry; and iii) provide equipment and training for a scalable brigade-sized unit. Following remarks by certain EU ministers in the follow-up to the 25 February General Affairs Council, notably the Polish Minister for the European Union, Adam Szłapka, on increased support for Ukraine and the use of frozen Russian assets for that purpose, this specific topic may also be raised at the 6 March meeting.
Read this ‘at a glance’ note on ‘Outcome of the European Council video-conference call of 26 February 2025‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.
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