On a purely theoretical scenario, if today’s fertility rate were to remain constant, Africa’s entire population would rise to the staggering number of 16 billion by the end of this century (according to UN forecasts) – a population the entire Earth could hardly sustain. In practice, fertility rates have been declining, albeit very slowly and unequally at regional level. In the two regions, which host a significant share of Africa’s population, Central Africa and Western Africa, fertility rates per woman have declined very little from 1950 to 2015, to, respectively, 5.9 and 5.5 children per women according to UN data. This slight decline is very unevenly distributed among individual countries. The most fragile states have not yet entered or are only at the beginning of their demographic transition. While much lower, in North Africa, fertility has rebounded in the 2010-2015 period compared to the previous five years. This clearly shows the huge demographic potential of the continent. Even if fertility rates were to fall very quickly – another purely theoretical scenario – the population would continue to grow fast, because of ‘demographic momentum’, making further demographic growth in Africa a certainty.
In focus
We write about
Blogroll
Disclaimer and Copyright statement
The content of all documents (and articles) contained in this blog is the sole responsibility of the author and any opinions expressed therein do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Parliament. It is addressed to the Members and staff of the EP for their parliamentary work. Reproduction and translation for non-commercial purposes are authorised, provided the source is acknowledged and the European Parliament is given prior notice and sent a copy.
For a comprehensive description of our cookie and data protection policies, please visit Terms and Conditions page.
Copyright © European Union, 2014-2023. All rights reserved.
Be the first to write a comment.