From figure 13 we can see that uncertainty is strongly correlated with import and export growth – they evolve in opposite directions. The first uncertainty peak corresponds to the fourth quarter of 2002, more precisely to the second Gulf War, the subsequent period of uncertainty refers to the economic crises from 2007 to 2009. The third important period corresponds to the euro area crises, US fiscal fights, and to China’s leadership transition between 2011 and the second quarter of 2013. Finally, the most recent periods are linked to the European immigration crisis and to the United Kingdom vote to withdraw from the EU, that followed from the third quarter of 2015, to the elections and political upheavals in Brazil, China, France, South Korea and the USA.
From figure 13 we can see that uncertainty is strongly correlated with import and export growth – they evolve in…
We write about
Disclaimer and Copyright statement
The content of all documents (and articles) contained in this blog is the sole responsibility of the author and any opinions expressed therein do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Parliament. It is addressed to the Members and staff of the EP for their parliamentary work. Reproduction and translation for non-commercial purposes are authorised, provided the source is acknowledged and the European Parliament is given prior notice and sent a copy.
For a comprehensive description of our cookie and data protection policies, please visit Terms and Conditions page.
Copyright © European Union, 2014-2022. All rights reserved.