Export and import growth for the EU28

From figure 13 we can see that uncertainty is strongly correlated with import and export growth – they evolve in opposite directions. The first uncertainty peak corresponds to the fourth quarter of 2002, more precisely to the second Gulf War, the subsequent period of uncertainty refers to the economic crises from 2007 to 2009. The third important period corresponds to the euro area crises, US fiscal fights, and to China’s leadership transition between 2011 and the second quarter of 2013. Finally, the most recent periods are linked to the European immigration crisis and to the United Kingdom vote to withdraw from the EU, that followed from the third quarter of 2015, to the elections and political upheavals in Brazil, China, France, South Korea and the USA.