China’s economic challenge to the world

Written by Ulrich Jochheim.

Global imbalances have been a major topic in international economic policymaking since at least the 1970s. Although they decreased after the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008, they have begun to widen again in recent years. As the 2008 crisis demonstrated, the sudden unwinding of current account surpluses and deficits (‘disorderly adjustment’) can have major consequences not only for the countries directly involved but also for many third countries through spillover effects, particularly in financial markets.

Against this background, developments in the Chinese economy have become particularly important for global economic stability: while China played an important stabilising role in overcoming the GFC, its economic model has largely focused on export promotion and, more recently, import substitution. This has led to substantial current account surpluses, both as a percentage of GDP and in nominal terms, given the size of China’s economy.

International organisations have been trying for some time now to convince China’s authorities that the country’s growth model is shifting the burden of adjustment to its trading partners and risks becoming globally unsustainable. Prior to the adoption of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan by the two houses of Parliament (the ‘Two Sessions’) in March 2026, the IMF, in particular, proposed strategies to render China’s economic expansion more sustainable for its partners while reducing the risk of a disorderly adjustment.

However, a more detailed analysis of the new plan suggests a continuation of the current economic policy trajectory. At the same time, the ongoing crisis in the Middle East/Iran seems to have prompted some within China to reconsider priorities, at least in the short term. It remains to be seen, however, whether recent, more accommodating statements by the Chinese side are merely for external consumption, especially in view of the summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (currently planned for mid-May 2026).

Read the complete briefing on ‘China’s economic challenge to the world‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.