EPRS Admin By / October 20, 2021

Potential adverse environmental impact

Potential adverse environmental impact of complacency and fragmentation

Potential adverse environmental impact of complacency and fragmentation

Compared with other scenarios, ambitious and united EU action (MIX55 scenario) therefore constitutes the best path towards achieving the climate goal of net zero by 2050 (see Table 1). In five years (from 2021 to 2025), it would have already yielded a reduction of 168 million tonnes (Mt) of GHG emissions compared to the baseline REF scenario and 237 MT of GHG emissions compared to the FRAG scenario. In 2050, the difference is even more substantial: at 944 MT of GHG emissions reduction compared to the baseline REF scenario and 1 795 MT of GHG emissions compared to the FRAG scenario. The modelling results of the study in Annex II showed that the extension of carbon pricing through the EU ETS to other sectors that are not currently covered by the EU ETS plays a substantial role. Without an extended EU ETS, a substantial gap in reaching net zero GHG emissions, of around 50 million tonnes of GHG emissions by 2050, would be observed. Similarly, additional MFF and NGEU funding will also have a significant impact, contributing to a reduction of roughly 50 million tonnes of GHG emissions by 2050.


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