Figure 1 shows the impact in terms of potential added value (in euros), by showing where different levels of ambition and the consequent GDP could go.
The baseline has been calculated by EPRS on the basis of scenarios and long-term projections made by the European Commission and the OECD. It reflects past (from 2015 to 2021) and projected real GDP in euros in purchasing power parity until 2032, with 2022 as the base year.
The baseline projection assumes a simple continuation, until 2032, of policy actions that have already been initiated, without substantial additional EU action (‘no policy change’ scenario). Under this scenario, real GDP would grow from a value of about €15 trillion in 2022 to about €17 trillion in 2032, which would translate to an average annual real GDP growth rate of 1.3 % over the period.
This ‘cost of non-Europe’ scenario shows the overall impact of policy action envisaged in the 50 sub-chapters of the study, with an implementation horizon of 10 years. Compared to the baseline, the analyses find that an additional €2.8 trillion could be generated, thus bringing total real GDP to a value of almost €20 trillion in 2032. This is a rather ambitious but reasonable estimation, as it would mean an average annual real GDP growth rate of 2.9 % over the period.
Be the first to write a comment.