Written by Ralf Drachenberg and Rebecca Torpey.
The European Council meeting on 27–28 June 2024 has a full agenda. As the current EU institutional cycle draws to a close, it marks a critical moment in launching the new cycle. EU leaders will discuss, and likely agree on, high-level appointments to EU institutions, including on the proposed candidate for European Commission President. They are also set to adopt the Strategic Agenda 2024-2029, outlining the EU’s political priorities for the coming five years. They will also discuss Ukraine, security and defence, Middle East, competitiveness, migration and Georgia.
General
The President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola will make the customary opening address. As leader of the country currently holding the six-month EU Council presidency, the Belgian Prime Minister, Alexander De Croo, is expected to provide an overview of the results of the Belgian Presidency. This could be the last European Council meeting for long-time Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rutte, whose successor, Dick Schoof, is expected to be sworn in on 2 July 2024.
European Council meeting
Next institutional cycle
Following initial discussions at their informal meeting of 17 June, EU leaders will seek to reach two crucial agreements at their meeting on 27–28 June 2024. The first on high-level appointments to EU institutions, and the second on the Strategic Agenda 2024-2029. These agreements will mark the start of the new EU institutional cycle.
High-level appointments
The aim is to find political agreement on the candidate for the next European Commission President, on the nominee for High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Commission Vice-President (HR/VP), with the agreement of the candidate for Commission President, and on the European Council President.
Most European Council decisions, including on its conclusions, are taken by consensus, as specified in its rules of procedure. However, this is not the case for decisions on high-level appointments. If a vote on the candidate for Commission President, for other posts, or on the whole package, is necessary, a ‘reinforced’ qualified majority’ would be required. According to Article 238(3)b TFEU, the candidate would need the support of at least 72 % of the Member States, representing 65 % of the EU population. A vote took place for previous European Council decisions on top jobs, such as the election of Jean‑Claude Juncker as Commission President and the re-election of Donald Tusk as European Council President, with some Heads of State or Government voting against the decision.
Since the informal dinner, European Council President Charles Michel has consulted Member States and met the leadership of the European Parliament, while the European political parties have also discussed the appointments within and between each other.
Based on the party political balance in the European Council and the European Parliament, it is expected that the high-level positions will be shared between the European People’s Party, the Party of European Socialists and the liberal family (Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE)/Renew Europe). While last-minute changes cannot be excluded, it is thought Ursula von der Leyen will be proposed for a second mandate as European Commission President; the former Portuguese prime minister, António Costa, will be elected as next European Council President and the current Prime Minister of Estonia, Kaja Kallas, nominated as HR/VP.
2024–2029 strategic agenda
EU leaders are also expected to adopt the Strategic Agenda 2024-2029, setting the political priorities for the EU’s next institutional cycle. The main priorities are likely to be: 1) ‘A free and democratic Europe’, 2) ‘A strong and secure Europe’, and 3) ‘A prosperous and competitive Europe’. A noteworthy development is the shift of the ‘free and democratic Europe’ priority, placed last in previous drafts, to the number-one priority.
The European Council is also expected to adopt conclusions on a roadmap for future work on internal EU reform.
Ukraine
The European Council is set to highlight its previous conclusions in support of Ukraine and Moldova. The main focus regarding Ukraine will be on ways to support its right to self-defence in Russia’s war, which has included attacks against civilian and energy infrastructure (with arms imported from Iran and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea). EU leaders may also: 1) discuss acting against those providing direct military support to Russia; 2) demand effective enforcement of sanctions and anti-circumvention measures; and 3) welcome the 14th package of sanctions. The 14th package includes a ban on the re-export of Russian liquefied natural gas. The package was reportedly delayed due to reservations from some Member States, such as Germany and Hungary, regarding different aspects of the package.
Moreover, the European Council is scheduled to welcome the agreement on utilising extraordinary revenues from frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s self-defence and reconstruction. It is also set to welcome bilateral security agreements between Ukraine and a number of Member States (Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Latvia, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden) and with partners Canada, Iceland, Japan, Norway and the United Kingdom. In addition, EU leaders may welcome the Ukraine Plan (Ukraine’s comprehensive reform and investment strategy for the next four years) and discuss the outcome of the June Ukraine Recovery Conference in Berlin.
The meeting is expected to take stock of the military support provided by the Ukraine Assistance Fund and Member State initiatives to supply ammunition, missiles, fighter jets, air defence and training.
An important point for discussion concerns restrictions on Ukraine’s use of weapons delivered by EU countries to strike targets inside Russian territory. The Member States hold varying stances on the issue. According to the Latvian President, Edgars Rinkēvičs, this restriction should be removed in July at the NATO Summit in Washington. French President Emmanuel Macron stated that French weapons sent to Ukraine, including long-range missiles, could be used to target bases inside Russia. Conversely, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said any weapons supplied by Italy should not be used on Russian territory. EU leaders are also set to discuss the outcome of the Ukraine Peace Summit in Switzerland in June, which resulted in a majority of the attending states signing a communiqué on a Peace Framework. Reportedly, a second summit, hosted by Saudi Arabia, may take place.
With a busy agenda, EU leaders may not have time to hold a full discussion on the European path for Ukraine and Moldova. However, important developments have taken place since EU leaders’ last discussion. In June, the Commission announced that Ukraine and Moldova had met the criteria required to begin accession negotiations. On 14 June, EU ambassadors agreed in principle to the negotiating frameworks for accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova. On 25 June, the Belgian Presidency called the first Intergovernmental Conferences with Ukraine and Moldova.
Security and defence
EU security and defence is a recurring agenda point since February 2022. At this meeting, EU leaders are expected to focus more specifically on ways to fund the EU defence industry. Put forward in March 2024, the European Defence Industry Programme is intended to support the EU defence industry, by providing €1.5 billion over three years. It is likely that EU leaders will reiterate their demand for work on the proposal to continue. In March, EU leaders requested that the Council and Commission present a report examining all options for mobilising funds for the EU defence industry; this report is due to be presented at this European Council meeting. Ahead of the March European Council meeting, 14 Member States had written to the European Investment Bank (EIB) calling for a policy change on defence investment. The 21–22 March 2024 European Council conclusions invited the EIB to adapt its lending policy to the defence industry. It can be expected that EU leaders may reiterate their demands for the EIB to improve defence industry access to finance.
Middle East
EU leaders have clearly signalled their support for a lasting peace based on a two-state solution in the Middle East, and are likely to restate this. This is also the first formal European Council meeting since US mediators tabled the three-phase peace proposal. Some aspects of the plan reflect previous European Council conclusions, such as the calls for: 1) ceasefire; 2) release of hostages; 3) provision of humanitarian aid for Gaza; and 4) reconstruction of Gaza. EU leaders are likely to reiterate these demands.
Since the Hamas attack on 7 October 2023, EU leaders have been consistently keen to prevent further escalation in the region. Nevertheless, strikes between Hezbollah and Israel across the Israel-Lebanon border are ongoing. On 18 June, in response to threats against Haifa, the Israeli Foreign Minister warned that the state of Israel was very close to a decision on a war with Hezbollah: ‘In an all-out war, Hezbollah will be destroyed and Lebanon will be severely hit’. On 19 June, the leader of Hezbollah issued a warning to Cyprus, stating that if Cypriot airfields and bases were used by Israel to target Lebanon, this would be considered an act of war and be treated as such. The Cypriot President responded by stating that Cyprus is not involved in the conflict. The Commission’s spokesperson said that ‘any threat against one of our Member States is a threat against the European Union’. As the situation remains tense, EU leaders will again warn against the ignition of a broader regional conflict.
Competitiveness
This part of the meeting is expected mainly to follow up on the April meeting, which discussed a new European competitiveness deal. Discussion may centre on deepening the capital markets union and mobilising private funding to support EU priority investments, with EU leaders likely to review progress since April and to announce ‘additional steps’.
Former European Central Bank president Mario Draghi is currently preparing a report on EU competitiveness. Despite expectation that the final text would be presented at this meeting, this has not been confirmed, and publication in July seems to be more likely. Draghi outlined some of his ideas in speeches in Belgium on 16 April and Spain on 14 June, calling for an industrial strategy for Europe and for ‘radical change’ more generally. At the April European Council meeting, at which former Italian prime minister Enrico Letta’s report on the future of the single market was presented, EU leaders said they ‘look forward to the presentation of the upcoming report on Europe’s competitiveness’.
Due to the new economic governance framework, 2024 is a transitional year in EU fiscal policy coordination. The European Semester spring package was published on 19 June. The European Council usually discusses the country-specific recommendations in June, to allow the conclusion of the European Semester. However, this year it is likely the topic will be postponed to a later meeting. According to Hungary’s newly published EU Council Presidency programme, an informal European Council meeting will take place on 8 November in Budapest, focused on competitiveness, which the Hungarian Presidency expects to result in a ‘Budapest Declaration’.
Other items
Migration
While no detailed discussion is anticipated, the European Council could adopt conclusions outlining the state of play on migration. EU leaders might take note of the Council’s negotiating mandate for a regulation strengthening Europol’s role in supporting Member States in their fight against migrant smuggling and trafficking in human beings. Agreeing on joint conclusions on migration is no small achievement, as in the recent past, EU leaders have failed several times to agree conclusions or statements on the issue. An individual leader might express their dissatisfaction with other European Council decisions, notably the high-level appointments, by blocking migration-specific conclusions.
Georgia
In response to the adoption of the law on transparency of foreign influence in the Georgian Parliament, EU leaders are set to discuss the situation in Georgia. The law is a step backwards on Georgia’s European path, according to Charles Michel and the Foreign Affairs Council. Large-scale protests against the law have recently taken place in the country.
Leaders are expected to invite the Commission and the High Representative to prepare a communication aimed at developing an EU strategic approach for the Black Sea. The EU’s current approach to the Black Sea is based on the Black Sea Synergy initiative, launched in 2007. The United States developed its own Black Sea security strategy in late 2023.
Read this briefing on ‘Outlook for the European Council meeting on 27‑28 June 2024‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.
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