Written by Jakub Przetacznik.
The European Union (EU) opened accession negotiations with Moldova in June 2024. The country will soon hold its presidential elections, the first round of which will take place on 20 October 2024 along with a constitutional referendum on EU accession. The two votes, which will determine the future of the country, are being targeted by Russian hybrid operations, including electoral bribery campaigns.
Presidential candidates
Incumbent president pro-EU Maia Sandu is leading the polls with 36.1 % support. Among the 10 remaining candidates, Alexandr Stoianoglo, former prosecutor-general, and Renato Usatîi, former mayor of Bălți, have the highest support, with 10.1 % and 7.5 % respectively. In the polls referred to here (September 2024), 34.6 % of respondents did not express support for any of the candidates. To be elected in the first round, the candidate has to gain an absolute majority (over 50 % of the votes cast), otherwise a second round will take place on 3 November between the two candidates who received the most votes in the first round.
Sandu has been Moldova’s President since December 2020 and her Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) has been in power since July 2021. Moldova introduced the reforms necessary to be granted EU candidate country status and to start accession negotiations at the time of the geopolitical shift caused by Russia’s war on Ukraine. Sandu would like to maintain the country’s pro-EU stance. Stoianoglo, who positions himself as an independent candidate, won the support of the Party of the Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM), led by former President Igor Dodon. Stoianoglo advocates a policy of equidistance between the EU and Russia; he was dismissed as prosecutor-general in 2023 by Sandu for unsatisfactory performance. Usatîi, from the Our Party, would like to establish a presidential republic which would be, in his words, the ‘dictatorship of order in the interest of the state and the dictatorship of responsibility towards the citizens’. Analysts consider him a populist: ‘hostile to Dodon and appealing to a moderately pro-Russian electorate’.
Referendum
The question to be posed in the referendum, whose result will be binding, is ‘Do you support the amendment of the constitution with a view to the accession of the Republic of Moldova to the European Union’. An affirmative result, with the participation of at least a third of voters, is needed to change the constitution. The polls suggest that 63 % of Moldovans support EU accession and 69 % will participate in the vote.
Hybrid operations
A disinformation campaign supporting a ‘no’ vote in the referendum is reportedly being supplemented by an electoral bribe operation, aimed at creating support networks in exchange for money, with over US$15 million being sent from Russia to more than 130 000 Moldovan citizens. The operation is, reportedly, being led by exiled businessman Ilan Shor, who is based in Russia. Police have also reported plans by criminal groups with Russian backing to seize public buildings.
European Parliament position
The European Parliament resolution of 9 October 2024 on strengthening Moldova’s resilience against Russian interference ahead of the upcoming presidential elections and constitutional referendum on EU integration strongly condemns the intensification of ‘malicious activities, interference and hybrid operations’, which undermine the electoral processes, sovereignty, security and democratic foundations of Moldova. Members of the European Parliament will join international election observers from the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe.
Read this ‘at a glance note’ on ‘Moldova: Presidential elections and referendum on EU membership‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.
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