Written by Zsolt G. Pataki.
Space has emerged as a focal point on the geopolitical stage, promising both economic prosperity and strategic importance in the coming decades. The EU’s pursuit of ‘strategic autonomy’ and its future role in space hinge upon evolving geopolitical dynamics, ranging from peaceful cooperation to heightened competition or conflict among global powers. Recent events foreshadow potential challenges to the EU’s aspiration to maintain the peaceful use of space. The geopolitical landscape of space is characterised by notable competition between historical rivals like Russia and the United States (US), alongside rising powers such as China, India, Japan and South Korea.
By 2050, space could become a major battlefield, although it could also remain a domain primarily for peaceful exploration, scientific discovery, and international collaboration. The space economy could grow beyond rockets and satellites, encompassing a broad ecosystem of space-based and terrestrial markets and activities, and space technologies could contribute to peace and prosperity. Launch costs could dramatically decrease, making space travel and transport more accessible. There could be mining colonies on the Moon and manufacturing in space, where air pollution is not a concern. Development of space-based solar farms to generate clean energy could become a reality. Hotels and resorts in Earth’s orbit could make space a tourist destination. Space-based agriculture could support lunar colonies.
Nevertheless, by 2050 we may also see increased weaponisation efforts such as the increased deployment of military satellites for reconnaissance, communication and navigation purposes. There could also be advancements in anti-satellite weapons and space-based defence systems. There will likely be efforts to prevent the weaponisation of space to maintain stability and prevent conflict escalation.
The European Commission has announced its plans to submit a proposal on an EU space act in the second quarter of 2025 (which will subsequently be discussed in the European Parliament, as part of the legislative procedure). This paper aims to describe the geopolitical context of space activities affecting the current and future capabilities of the EU in space endeavours, with a focus on the use of space for security and defence and the response to space-related risks. Further to this, the paper presents four plausible future scenarios in which the EU’s ambitions in space could play out, while also highlighting challenges and opportunities and laying out policy considerations for EU action.
Read this ‘in-depth analysis’ on ‘EU capabilities in space: Scenarios for space security by 2050‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.
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