Latest on Russia’s war on Ukraine [What Think Tanks are thinking]

Written by Marcin Grajewski.

Ukraine has made progress in recapturing its territory seized by Russia, 18 months after Moscow started its unprovoked war against its neighbour, as part of the counter-offensive launched in June. Ukrainian analysts say the drive to capture a succession of villages is paying off. Russia has dismissed the offensive as a failure, while admitting that things are not easy in parts of south-eastern Zaporizhzhia region.

Russia has unleashed a barrage of drone strikes on various targets, including the port city of Odessa. Some have reached the border of NATO member Romania, according to Ukrainian officials, and Romanian President Klaus Iohannis has said that strikes were less than a kilometre from Romania’s border.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Kyiv on 6 and 7 September to discuss how the counter-offensive is going and to assess battlefield needs, as well as any steps required to shore up Ukraine’s energy security ahead of winter. Meanwhile, Turkey has said that, together with the UN, it has prepared new initiatives to revive the grain deal, recently blocked by Russia, which had allowed Ukraine to transport the commodity safely through the Black Sea.

This note gathers links to the recent publications and commentaries from many international think tanks on Russia’s war on Ukraine. Earlier analyses on the war can be found in a previous edition of the ‘What Think Tanks are Thinking’ series. Publications on NATO ahead of its July summit can be found in another item in the series.

Scars on their souls: PTSD and veterans of Ukraine
Globsec, September 2023

The impact of the war in Ukraine on the European defence market
Institut des relations internationales et stratégiques, September 2023

Russian offensive campaign assessment, September 2023
Institute of the Study of War, September 2023

The Russian imperial movement, the war in Ukraine and the future of Russian state
International Centre for Counter-Terrorism, September 2023

Russia drives Switzerland closer to NATO
International Institute for Strategic Studies, September 2023 

Russia is losing in Ukraine but winning in Georgia
Atlantic Council, August 2023

Putin’s Russia must not be allowed to normalize nuclear blackmail
Atlantic Council, August 2023

Ukraine’s remarkable resilience may prove decisive in long war with Russia
Atlantic Council, August 2023

Here’s what F-16s will (and will not) mean for Ukraine’s fight against Russia 
Atlantic Council, August 2023

Putin’s Russia is trapped in genocidal denial over Ukrainian independence
Atlantic Council, August 2023

The return of the enemy: Putin’s war on Ukraine and a cognitive blockage in Western security policy
Brookings Institution, August 2023

Republicans are turning against aid to Ukraine
Brookings Institution, August 2023

The war in Ukraine is about Europe’s future
Carnegie Europe, August 2023

Ukrainians are slowly adapting to life in Germany
Centre for Eastern Studies, August 2023

The end of Prigozhin: The Kremlin disciplines the elite
Centre for Eastern Studies, August 2023

Partial success: Russia’s oil sector adapts to sanctions
Centre for Eastern Studies, August 2023

The twilight of the Russian-Indian strategic partnership
Centre for Eastern Studies, August 2023

Pushing Ukraine to negotiate now would be disastrous
Chatham House, August 2023

Who killed Yevgeny Prigozhin?
Council on Foreign Relations, August 2023

Three lessons from Europe’s response to Ukrainian migration
European Council on Foreign Relations, August 2023

How tomorrow never comes: Russia’s war against Ukraine and its impact on Taiwan
European Council on Foreign Relations, August 2023

EU-Ukraine wartime trade: Overcoming difficulties, forging a European path
European Policy Centre, August 2023

An opportunity for Ukraine’s allies
German Marshall Fund, August 2023

The wind rose’s directions: Russia’s strategic deterrence during the first year of the war in Ukraine
Institut français des relations internationales, August 2023

Russia’s war on Ukraine: A sanctions timeline
Peterson Institute of International Economy, August 2023

Seeking ways to exclude Russian vendors from UN procurement system
Polish Institute of International Affairs, August 2023

Russian aggression speeding up changes in religious situation in Ukraine
Polish Institute of International Affairs, August 2023

Hard times for U.S.-Russian nuclear arms control
Rand Corporation, August 2023

China ponders Russia’s logistical challenges in the Ukraine war
Rand Corporation, August 2023

Resisting Russia: Insights into Ukraine’s civilian-based actions during the first four months of the war in 2022
Rand Corporation, August 2023

Why Biden was justified to send cluster munitions to Ukraine
Rand Corporation, August 2023

The Russo-Ukrainian war has bolstered Ukraine’s non-state alliance network
Rand Corporation, August 2023

Nuclear rhetoric and escalation management in Russia’s war against Ukraine: A chronology
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, August 2023

Did Russia commit a war crime in leaving the Ukraine grain deal?
Atlantic Council, July 2023

Ukraine must not forget fight against corruption while battling Russia
Atlantic Council, July 2023

Ukraine’s digital revolution is proving vital for the country’s war effort
Atlantic Council, July 2023

Want Ukraine in the EU? You’ll have to reform the EU, too
Brookings Institution, July 2023

Ukraine has not transformed EU foreign policy
Carnegie Europe, July 2023

NATO gives Ukraine no finishing line
Carnegie Europe, July 2023

How frozen Russian assets could pay for rebuilding in Ukraine
Council on Foreign Relations, July 2023

Russia killed the Black Sea grain deal: These countries could suffer most 
Council on Foreign Relations, July 2023

The 2024 U.S. elections and Ukraine
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik, July 2023

Cluster munitions and international law
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik, July 2023

The Ukrainian counteroffensive: Why Western allies should keep calm and carry on
European Council on Foreign Relations, July 2023

In Ukraine I saw a brave but ravaged land in limbo: It needs a future, it needs NATO
European Council on Foreign Relations, August 2023

Russia’s weaponisation of grain exports must not be tolerated
European Policy Centre, July 2023

The China nuclear taboo and Russia’s war in Ukraine
Istituto Affari Internazionali, July 2023

Ukraine’s NATO membership will strengthen Europe’s security
Istituto Affari Internazionali, July 2023

The EU can’t treat Ukrainian refugees like short-term visitors
Rand Corporation, July 2023

Making military aid work
Rand Corporation, July 2023

China and the war in Ukraine
Fundacion Real Instituto Elcano, July 2023

Read this briefing on ‘Latest on Russia’s war on Ukraine‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.