Written by Gregor Erbach with Johanna Roniger.
Ahead of the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) from 30 November to 12 December 2023 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, concerns have been raised due to the host country’s status as a significant oil producer, its heavy subsidisation of fossil fuels, and the fact that the COP28 president, Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, is the CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. Despite these controversies, COP28 is critically important not only because it marks the first global stocktake, but also due to its critical agendas on adaptation, mitigation, loss and damage, and climate finance.
The European Parliament will send a delegation of Members to take part in the conference between 8 and 12 December. In advance of their visit, the European Parliament adopted a resolution urging all countries to strengthen their climate commitments and make a fair contribution to increase international climate financing.
Central to COP28 is the global stocktake, a comprehensive assessment of collective progress towards the goals of the Paris Agreement, which takes place every five years. This year’s stocktake will inform the next round of nationally determined contributions to be submitted by 2025. The synthesis report on the stocktake, released ahead of COP28, highlights the progress made and the substantial gaps that remain in many areas including climate change mitigation, adaptation and climate finance. At COP28, nations will analyse the findings and discuss how to address the gaps.
Conference participants are expected to discuss a global goal on adaptation, as set out in Article 7.1 of the Paris Agreement. As adaptation needs vary highly around the globe, goal indicators and metrics need to be adaptable to diverse regional contexts. Dedicated workshops following COP27 outlined possible 2030 targets including the conservation of at least 50 % of land, freshwater and ocean ecosystems.
To accelerate climate change mitigation, the COP28 president, together with the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) call for two global 2030 goals: tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements. The European Parliament and roughly 100 countries, including the EU, the United States, China and Brazil have expressed support for a pledge on tripling renewables. Negotiations at COP28 are aimed at integrating the two goals within the final COP text, requiring consensus by all countries. Simultaneously, some see a chance for a COP28 deal on phasing out fossil fuels and ending fossil fuel subsidies, as the European Parliament has advocated. Following G7 and EU announcements on their ambition to accelerate the phase out of unabated fossil fuels, it remains to be seen if a global commitment can be made at COP28.
Another critical issue on the agenda is the operationalisation of the ‘loss and damage’, fund, agreed at COP27. The new financing mechanism should help vulnerable countries that have suffered large losses from climate change impacts such as floods, droughts and rising sea levels. After months of negotiations, a proposal for implementing the fund was put forward, identifying the World Bank as interim host and urging, but not obliging, developing countries to contribute. At COP28, all countries will decide on the proposal.
Lastly, climate finance is a priority at COP28. Developed countries have repeatedly missed the goal to mobilise US$100 billion annually for international climate finance, but are likely to meet it this year. There will be discussion at COP28 about the level of climate finance and negotiation around a new target. Another significant aspect is the operationalisation of a new voluntary carbon market mechanism, established under Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement.
Read more on EU measures against climate change.
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