Latest on Russia’s war on Ukraine [What Think Tanks are thinking]

Written by Marcin Grajewski.

As Russia’s brutal and unprovoked war on Ukraine approaches the two-year mark in February, the front lines have remained virtually static for several months. On 17 January, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged Ukraine and its people to seize the initiative to help determine the course of the war and secure more extensive international support.

Earlier, Zelenskyy expressed confidence that the key aid from Washington, delayed by infighting in the US Congress, would soon be forthcoming. EU Member States have agreed on a partial negotiation mandate to start talks with the European Parliament on a €50 billion aid package for Ukraine, but one Member State, Hungary, is raising obstacles. The European Union is also preparing a 13th package of sanctions against Russia.

With Russia continuing to shell Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, drones – reportedly Ukrainian – hit a major gas export terminal near the city of St Petersburg, halting its operation.

This note gathers links to the recent publications and commentaries from many international think tanks on Russia’s war on Ukraine. Earlier analyses on the war can be found in a previous edition of the ‘What Think Tanks are Thinking’ series.

To defeat Putin in a long war, Ukraine must switch to active defense in 2024
Atlantic Council, January 2024

Ukraine’s wartime economy is performing surprisingly well
Atlantic Council, January 2024

Russia’s growing dark fleet: Risks for the global maritime order
Atlantic Council, January 2024

Ukraine’s New Year of military and political challenges
Carnegie Europe, January 2024

The West and Ukraine: Agreements on security cooperation
Centre for Eastern Studies, January 2024

European defence industry: urgent action is needed!
Clingendael, January 2024

Beyond the counter-offensive: Attrition, stalemate, and the future of the war in Ukraine
European Council on Foreign Relations, January 2024

The 2024 elections in Russia, the EU, and the US: International implications and impacts on the war in Ukraine
Finnish Institute of International Affairs, January 2024

Russian offensive campaign assessment, January 22, 2024
Institute for the Study of War, January 2024

Cash keeps accumulating at Euroclear Bank as a result of sanctions on Russia
Peterson Institute for International Economics, January 2024

The Russian economy amidst the war and sanctions
Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche, Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, IFO Institut, January 2024

The war in Ukraine is not a stalemate
Wilson Center, Foreign Affairs, January 2024

The dangers and limitations of the Russian missile campaign
The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, January 2024

For a secure and stable Europe, put Ukraine on a definitive path to NATO
Brookings Institution, December 2023

The European Union should do better than confiscate Russia’s reserve money
Bruegel, December 2023

The West’s inaction over Ukraine risks dangerous conclusions in Moscow
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, December 2023

Arsenal of democracy: Integrating Ukraine into the West’s defense industrial base
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, December 2023

Is Europe still committed to Ukraine?
Carnegie Europe, December 2023

Moving beyond resilience in Ukraine’s recovery
Carnegie Europe, December 2023

Ukrainian generals predict a tough 2024
Centre for Eastern Studies, December 2023

Putting Russia on trial: Ukrainian efforts to establish a tribunal for crimes of aggression
Centre for Eastern Studies, December 2023

At war with nature: The impact of the Russian invasion on Ukraine’s natural environment
Centre for Eastern Studies, December 2023

Ukraine and the EU budget: A tale of two narratives
Centre for European Policy Studies, December 2023

The impact of ending military aid to Ukraine: Gradual decline, then collapse
Centre for Strategic and International Studies, December 2023

Russia’s war on Ukraine has strengthened Lukashenka but undermined Belarus
Chatham House, December 2023

The ticking clock for Russia’s endless war: Unveiling silent turmoil on Putin’s second front
Egmont, December 2023

Europe needs a new Ukraine strategy
European Council on Foreign Relations, December 2023

From Russia with love: How Moscow courts the global south
European Council on Foreign Relations, December 2023

Reformation nation: Wartime politics in Ukraine
European Council on Foreign Relations, December 2023

The limits of “as long as it takes”: Why Ukraine’s allies need to update their strategy
European Council on Foreign Relations, December 2023

Russia’s war against Ukraine: Lessons on human security
European Policy Centre, December 2023

2024: Le choix de l’UE face à l’impérialisme colonial de Poutine
Fondation Jean Jaurès, December 2023

Russlands Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine
Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, December 2023

Business as usual won’t do: Ukraine matters for the credibility of European integration
Friends of Europe, December 2023

Preparing for a longer war: Is a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia possible by 2024?
German Council on Foreign Relations, December 2023

Transatlantic cooperation on Ukraine: How Europe could respond to uncertainty over US assistance
German Council on Foreign Relations, December 2023

Five security scenarios on Russian war in Ukraine for 2024-2025: Implications and policy recommendations to Western Partners
GLOBSEC, December 2023

La dimension énergétique de la guerre d’Ukraine
Groupe de Recherche et d’Information sur la Paix et la Sécurité, December 2023

Guerre d’Ukraine: Où en est l’économie russe ?
Institut français des relations internationales, December 2023

Perceptions of democracy in Ukraine amid war with Russia
Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, December 2023

Democracy at war: What Ukrainians think
Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, December 2023

The high price of losing Ukraine
Institute for the Study of War, December 2023

The Olympics of discontent: Paris 2024 and Russia’s war against Ukraine
Istituto Affari Internazionali, December 2023

Ukraine between NATO and the EU
Italian Institute for International Political Studies, December 2023

The Ukraine Facility
Jacques Delors Institute, December 2023

The cost of the Ukraine war for Russia
Rand Corporation, December 2023

Russian revanchism must be defeated in Ukraine
Vox Ukraine, December 2023

Ukraine as a locus of identity: Why history and culture matter
Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, December 2023

Ukraine: the world’s biggest minefield
Centre for Eastern Studies, December 2023

Outlier or not? The Ukrainian economy’s preparedness for EU accession
Bertelsmann Stiftung, December 2023

Alternate reality: How Russian society learned to stop worrying about the war
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, December 2023

Read this briefing on ‘Latest on Russia’s war on Ukraine‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.