Written by Sebastian Clapp and Jakub Przetacznik.
Two years after the start of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, the war appears to be at a stalemate. While Ukraine successfully recaptured large parts of its territory in the summer and autumn of 2022, the 2023 counter-offensive was not successful in liberating the whole of Ukraine and the war has turned into one of attrition. The European Union and United States have provided Ukraine with substantial military assistance, but continued military support is facing political challenges in both the EU and the US and its fate remains uncertain.
Military situation in Ukraine
Source: Institute for the Study of War
The initial attack on Ukraine, from Belarus, Crimea, and the entire Russia-Ukraine border, caused Ukraine to temporarily lose control of a vast swathe of territory, including around Kyiv. The Ukrainian army recaptured a significant amount of territory in the summer and autumn of 2022; most importantly, the Russian army no longer occupies the north-east of Ukraine or any regional capital, nor does it fully occupy any region it claims, except Crimea. The occupation continues along the Sea of Azov and around 165 km westwards from Crimea. The 2023 counter-offensive did not succeed in its initial strategic target – to reach the Sea of Azov, separate the Russian army in Crimea from the rest of the country, and finally liberate the whole of Ukraine.
The result is the current stalemate on the frontline, with repetitive battles of attrition for small, but important, cities and villages, such as Bakhmut, Kupiansk and Avdiivka. One reason is that Russia managed to fortify its positions on the 1000 km-long southern frontline. The fortifications include, inter alia, trenches and anti-tank ‘dragon’s teeth’ and landmines. Another reason is the delay in delivering military equipment. The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in June 2023 also had military implications and limited the Ukrainian army’s options. The fighting is currently concentrated in the Donbas, and the frontline is barely moving. Russia is also shelling Ukrainian targets, especially cities, across the country. Donated air defence systems have improved the situation, but every day civilians are victims of shelling and Ukraine’s infrastructure is being destroyed. The Ukrainian army had succeeded in destroying 20 % of Russia’s Black Sea fleet by December 2023, undermining Russia’s position and forcing it to move parts of its fleet from Crimea to official Russian territory. This allowed Ukraine to restart grain exports through ports under Ukrainian control, and to export its 2023 harvest.
In February 2024, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy removed Valerii Zaluzhnyi from his position as head of the Ukrainian armed forces, the biggest change in the country’s military leadership since February 2022. It came after rumours that the President and General Zaluzhnyi, who has overseen Ukraine’s military campaign since the start of the war, were at odds. General Oleksandr Syrskyi was named as his replacement and tasked the army with improving planning of activities by command structures; improving logistics so as to answer soldiers’ needs; controlling the situation on every section of the frontline, keeping a balance between combat tasks and reconstituting units; and introducing new technologies and disseminating those which have proved successful (including unmanned systems and electronic warfare). However, efficient realisation of plans depends on timely delivery of Western military equipment. There are over 10 000 confirmed civilian deaths, with actual figures being considerably higher. Ukraine estimates, in February 2024, Russian army casualties at over 400 000, including at least 150 000 deaths. Ukrainian army casualties were unofficially estimated in August 2023 at 170 000-190 000, including 70 000 deaths.
EU and US military support
The EU has mobilised €5.6 billion to reimburse Member States for providing weapons to Ukraine, both lethal and non-lethal (€28 billion including Member States’ bilateral commitments). This amount includes: €3.6 billion for military equipment, both lethal and non-lethal, for the Ukrainian armed forces; and a €2 billion ammunition package, comprising joint procurement of 155-mm calibre artillery rounds and missiles, as well as reimbursement for ground-to-ground and artillery ammunition and missiles, donated to Ukraine by Member States from existing stocks or from reprioritising existing orders. This follows a March 2023 EU pledge to provide Ukraine with 1 million rounds of artillery ammunition by March 2024, a commitment that High Representative Josep Borrell has admitted the EU will fail to meet, with only slightly more than half set to be delivered by the deadline. A further 630 000 rounds are expected to be delivered by the end of 2024; the fund being used for this is the European Peace Facility (EPF), an off-budget fund now worth €12 billion. The equipment delivered to Ukraine ranges from protective equipment and air and missile defences to highly advanced Western main battle tanks. Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium and EU partner Norway have announced they are willing to send US-made F-16s to Kyiv, but the first batch promised by Denmark for the end of December 2023 has been delayed by at least six months. Several Member States committed to providing bilateral military assistance to Ukraine for 2024, totalling at least €21 billion (not including the Member States that have yet to send their commitments). Recently, Denmark declared it would send its entire ammunition stock to Ukraine and urged others to increase support for Kyiv.
Borrell presented the Foreign Affairs Council with a proposal in October 2023 and again in December 2023, requesting €5 billion annually for 2024-2027 in military aid to Ukraine under the EPF. This developed into a proposal for a single, non-repeatable top-up of €5 billion to the EPF, at the Foreign Affairs Council on 22 January 2024. The purpose of this was to create a ‘Ukraine Assistance Fund‘ within the EPF. At the time of writing, no agreement has been reached on this matter, as Member States disagree on how to modify the fund to better suit Ukraine’s needs and support Europe’s arms industry in fulfilling them. The eighth tranche of military assistance under the EPF also continues to be held up by Hungary. Moreover, the EU launched an EU Military Assistance Mission in support of Ukraine (EUMAM Ukraine) in November 2022. Almost 40 000 Ukrainian soldiers have been trained as of February 2024; following Member States’ agreement in January 2024, the number is expected to reach 60 000 by the end of summer 2024.
The US has given almost US$44 billion in military assistance to Ukraine, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The Biden administration has given or promised to give Ukraine a long list of defence capabilities, including advanced radar and surveillance systems, Abrams battle tanks and anti-aircraft missiles. The agreement by the Biden administration to provide Ukraine with cluster munitions caused some controversy in July 2023.
EU and US support remains essential to assist Ukraine in its defence. EU military aid to Ukraine is even more important given that continued US support is not certain after the next US election – a second Trump presidency would very likely halt aid to Ukraine – and the current ‘Congressional funding crisis‘. After months of political wrangling, the US Senate approved a long-awaited US$95 billion aid package for Taiwan, Israel, and Ukraine in February 2024; the package includes, inter alia, US$60 billion for Kyiv and US$14 billion for Israel’s war against Hamas. Republicans were split and had already voted the bill down, while Democrats supported its passage. The bill is now before the House of Representatives, where its fate is uncertain. Therefore, at the beginning of 2024, continued Western assistance to Ukraine looked uncertain, as new funding was politically stuck in the US and EU. At the 2024 Munich Security Conference, President Zelenskyy thus pleaded for continued Western support for Ukraine. Ukraine is requesting, among other things, fighter and transport jets, ammunition, battle tanks, drones and long-range missiles. According to an expert from the Council on Foreign Relations think-tank: ‘So far, the West has provided most of what Ukraine has asked for, but much more slowly and in much smaller quantities than necessary.’
European Parliament position
Parliament has condemned Russia’s aggression against Ukraine from the start, and has called for increased support for Ukraine in several resolutions. In its resolution of 16 February 2023 marking one year of Russia’s invasion and war of aggression against Ukraine, Parliament called for a substantial increase in munitions deliveries to Ukraine; in 2022, Parliament had urged Member States to meet Ukraine’s need for weapons.
Read this ‘at a glance’ note on ‘Ukraine: Military state of play – February 2024‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.
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