Written by Annastiina Papunen and Rebecca Zamponi.

The first quarter of 2025 has been a very busy one for the European Council, with EU leaders having already convened three times before their regular March meeting – once for an informal retreat on defence on 3 February, in a video-conference on 26 February and then for a special European Council meeting on 6 March. The increasingly complex geopolitical situation, as well as the current strains on the transatlantic relationship, make the regular March meeting a crucial one. According to the Leaders’ Agenda, the meeting was expected to concentrate mainly on competitiveness, but due to recent events many items have been added to the agenda, including Ukraine, the Middle East and defence.

As usual, the meeting will start with an exchange of views with European Parliament President Roberta Metsola. EU leaders will also have a discussion with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. There will be a working lunch with United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, dedicated to multilateralism and other global issues. In the afternoon, a Euro Summit meeting will take place in inclusive format, with European Central Bank President, Christine Lagarde, and Eurogroup President, Paschal Donohoe, taking part in the discussions on economic issues and competitiveness.

1.      Euro Summit

At this first Euro Summit meeting since March 2024 (meetings are, in principle, biannual), EU leaders are expected to discuss the EU economic and financial situation, which ‘remains resilient among global uncertainty’. In his letter to European Council President António Costa, the President of the Eurogroup, Paschal Donohoe, outlined ‘a three pronged strategy’ for improving i) competitiveness, ii) resilience and iii) macroeconomic and financial stability. This strategy, which the Eurogroup would like the European Council to endorse at its March meeting, builds upon a Eurogroup statement from November 2024, and the Commission proposal on the 2025 euro area recommendation. As a core driver for growth and competitiveness, the completion of the capital markets union (CMU) is a critical element in the overall competitiveness strategy, which the Eurogroup has been addressing comprehensively since its 2024 statement on the future of the CMU.

The progress of the digital euro and the current situation in the crypto-currency landscape could also feature on the Euro Summit agenda. Finally, EU leaders may discuss ways of asserting Europe’s voice in international fora, such as the G7, in order to shape global economic policies.

2.     European Council meeting

Ukraine

Talks between the United States and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia on 11 March resulted in an agreement on a joint statement, in which Ukraine expressed readiness to accept a 30-day ceasefire (with conditions) and conclude a critical minerals deal, while the US committed to increasing humanitarian aid and resuming intelligence-sharing and security assistance to Ukraine. However, in a phone call between Presidents Trump and Putin on 18 February, Russia stated that it would not agree to a 30-day ceasefire. Instead, a moratorium on attacks against energy infrastructure was agreed upon. A statement released by the Kremlin said that Russia would require all foreign military aid and intelligence to Ukraine to be stopped in order for a full ceasefire to be agreed. President Trump later said that the cessation of military aid had not been discussed during the call. It is likely that EU leaders will express themselves against any agreement that would prevent military aid to Ukraine, as the European Council has very recently reiterated the importance of ‘peace through strength’. EU leaders may also underline their willingness to support Ukraine in reaching a ‘comprehensive, just and lasting peace based on the principles of the United Nations (UN) Charter and international law’ and call on Russia to show political will to end the war.

Earlier in March, EU leaders expressed their support for ‘a comprehensive, just and lasting peace’, but also laid out principles that should be respected in the negotiations. One key principle was that any peace agreement should include credible security guarantees for Ukraine. The European Council may discuss how the EU and like-minded partners in the international community can contribute to such security guarantees. In that context, on 11 March, military chiefs from over 30 countries (both NATO and non-NATO members) met in Paris to define credible security guarantees for Ukraine.

On 14 March, EU ambassadors discussed the renewal of sanctions against 2 400 Russian individuals and entities. A decision requires unanimity, which Hungary and Slovakia were blocking, but a compromise was reached which sees some names removed from the sanctions list. The timely renewal may be welcomed by EU leaders, who have regularly endorsed sanctions packages against those supporting Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Middle East

When the European Council last discussed the situation in the Middle East in December 2024, an offensive had recently toppled the Assad regime, on 27 November. The European Council and various international actors were hopeful that this would be an opportunity for stability and peace in Syria. However, violent clashes have recently erupted between the Syrian Caretaker Authority forces and groupings loyal to the Assad regime. In response, the High Representative, Kaja Kallas, condemned i) the attacks by pro-Assad militias against security forces, and ii) crimes committed against civilians, allegedly perpetrated by armed groups supporting the security forces of the transitional authorities. EU leaders are likely also to condemn this violence and urge all parties to protect Syrians, without discrimination, particularly civilians. On 24 February 2025, taking into account the changed situation, the Council suspended several restrictive measures against Syria. The aim was to support the political transition in the country, its economic recovery, and its stabilisation. EU leaders may ask the Council to continue to monitor the situation and the suspensions. They are likely to welcome the outcomes of the Standing with Syria conference, which took place on 17 March and aimed to build international support for a peaceful transition and obtain commitments for humanitarian and non-humanitarian assistance to Syria.

The European Council may also welcome the Arab Recovery and Reconstruction Plan for Gaza, which was presented at the Cairo summit on 4 March 2025 and aims to rebuild the Gaza strip. The plan was recently welcomed by the foreign ministers of France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom, and by the High Representative and President Costa. EU leaders are likely to reiterate their support for peace in the Middle East based on the two-state solution, call for the full implementation of the ceasefire and hostage release agreement between Israel and Hamas, and call for improved and sustained access for humanitarian assistance to Gaza.

Defence

Building on the discussions at the informal retreat on defence in February 2025 and at the special European Council meeting in March 2025, EU leaders will consider the proposals included in the white paper on European defence put forward by the European Commission on 19 March. Recently, the European Parliament adopted a joint resolution on the upcoming white paper, calling for the EU to take urgent action ‘to ensure its own autonomous security’ and for the paper to make concrete proposals to the European Council. While broadly supportive of the approach put forward by the Commission in the ReArm Europe initiative, EU leaders may make additional requests to the Commission, notably to propose additional funding sources for defence at EU level, call for a review of processes to reduce costs, ensure standardisation and interoperability, contribute to a well-functioning market for the defence industry, and call on the Commission and co-legislators to make progress on simplifying the legal and administrative framework, prioritising a defence-specific simplification omnibus. These items may be revisited by EU leaders, with discussions on the financing of investments in the EU defence sector and related fields (such as research) likely to be strongly debated. Discussions on defence will be closely linked to the debate on Ukraine and EU competitiveness.

EU leaders may welcome the extension for a further two years of the mandate of the EU’s common security and defence policy (CSDP) military operation in the Mediterranean, EUNAVFOR MED IRINI. Its principal task is the implementation of the United Nations’ arms embargo on Libya.

Competitiveness

The March European Council meeting was initially primarily intended to discuss competitiveness-related issues. Global politics has, however, moved quickly in recent weeks, with many items added to the agenda. Nevertheless, President Costa stated during his recent meeting with outgoing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz that the March meeting would have ‘competitiveness at its core’. He explained that defence and competitiveness were interlinked and that ‘prosperity and security are two sides of the same coin’. Moreover, he considers investments in European defence to be fundamentally tantamount to investments in European industries and technologies.  

Discussions are expected to build upon the i) April 2024 Competitiveness Deal, ii) November 2024 Budapest Declaration, iii) January 2025 Competitiveness Compass, turning the Draghi Report into a concrete roadmap, iv) February 2025 Clean Industrial Deal, and v) the omnibus simplification packages. EU leaders have underlined the importance of boosting EU competitiveness, and are likely to mention three crucial tools: i) simplification, ii) energy and iii) the savings and investment union.

On simplification, EU leaders will follow up on a February Commission communication on implementation and simplification, and could, for example, request a drastic reduction of administrative and reporting burdens for business. In that context, they are likely to call for swift progress on the omnibus packages, with a view to concluding them by the end of the year.

Amid concerns over the impact of high energy prices on business, energy is another key issue with respect to competitiveness. EU leaders are expected to call for urgent action to secure the supply of abundant, affordable and clean energy. Regarding the savings and investment union, EU leaders will reiterate their call for the completion of the CMU and the banking union as ‘a matter of urgency’.

Furthermore, ahead of the presentation in June 2025 of an ambitious single market strategy, EU leaders will also discuss the single market as a crucial driver of EU competitiveness. In his invitation letter, President Costa specifically mentioned the action plans for the automotive, steel and metal sectors. The Union of Skills is also likely to feature on the agenda.

Closely connected to the EU competitiveness debate, the current tense trading environment is likely to be centre stage in the discussions. With the new US administration taking a more protectionist and hostile stance on trade policy, threatening to use tariffs against both allies and competitors, the traditionally strong transatlantic alliance between the EU and the US is under strain. On 12 March, the US applied a 25 % tariff on imports of steel and aluminium, which will have an impact on businesses and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic and globally; it is threatening to impose reciprocal tariffs and high tariffs on European alcoholic beverages. The EU has announced countermeasures, while also indicating that it was open for negotiations. On a more positive note, the new situation has helped to deepen EU cooperation, with, for example, France and Germany working closely together, while pushing the UK and Canada to strengthen their ties with the EU.

EU economic coordination will also feature on the agenda. It is expected that EU leaders will review the priorities for the 2025 European Semester and endorse the Recommendation on the economic policy of the euro area. In addition, they will be briefed on the employment situation in the Union.

Next multiannual financial framework and new own resources

EU leaders will have a first exchange of views on the 2028-2034 multiannual financial framework (MFF). As was the case for the last two MFF negotiations, the European Council will hold its first discussion several months before the Commission’s MFF proposal, with the aim of setting the political framework for the proposal. As indicated by President Costa, EU leaders will focus on ways of ensuring that the EU has the necessary resources to achieve its political priorities.

A critical point in this context is the role of new own resources in the next MFF. On 7 February, the Commission published its contribution to the overall reflections on the next MFF, outlining the key policy and budgetary challenges that will impact its structure and the priorities.

Migration

The European Council will review progress on ongoing migration files and consider the new Commission proposal on returns of 11 March 2025, a legislative initiative which EU leaders have been requesting for some time and which they are likely to discuss at length. As at other recent EU leaders’ meetings, a letter from the Commission President will provide input to inform the discussion.

Oceans

The Leaders’ Agenda 2025 envisages a discussion on oceans after the 2025 European Ocean Days and ahead of the upcoming UN Ocean Conference. The European Council’s Strategic Agenda states that: ‘We will continue to protect nature and reverse the degradation of ecosystems, including oceans.’ Thus, EU leaders could ask the Commission to put forward the planned European Oceans Pact, which aims to foster healthy oceans and increase maritime security. The impact of the recent incident in the North Sea – the collision of a cargo ship with an oil tanker – could also be raised.

External relations

The European Council is expected to signal its commitment to the UN Pact for the Future, adopted in September 2024. The overarching focus of the Pact is to ensure that international institutions can deliver; the European Council’s commitment to the Pact is a signal of its continued support for multilateralism. The Pact is also seen as a way to boost the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals. In that context, EU leaders may look to the upcoming International Conference on Financing for Development, which will take place in Seville from 30 June to 3 July 2025, and call on the EU and its Member States to contribute to an ambitious outcome.

Read this briefing on ‘Outlook for the meetings of EU leaders on 20-21 March 2025‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.