Transitioning out of temporary protection for displaced people from Ukraine

Written by Katrien Luyten.

The EU’s temporary protection regime has provided predictability and legal certainty to both displaced people from Ukraine and the EU Member States. The situation in Ukraine, as a result of Russia’s ongoing war of aggression, still requires a common European response. The EU has therefore decided to extend temporary protection for a fifth year, until 4 March 2027. Moreover, the European Commission has proposed a coordinated approach to a smooth transition out of temporary protection, when the circumstances allow.

Background

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, over 5.6 million people have been forced to seek refuge, mostly in the EU and its neighbouring countries. Reacting swiftly when the invasion began, the EU decided to grant Union-wide protection to people arriving from Ukraine by triggering – for the first time ever – the Temporary Protection Directive (Directive 2001/55/EC, TPD). The TDP allowed EU Member States swiftly to offer protection and rights to people in urgent need of assistance, while also preventing national asylum systems from becoming overwhelmed during mass arrivals of displaced people. As of April 2025, over 4.26 million displaced people from Ukraine benefit from temporary protection in the EU, of which 27.9 % are in Germany, 23.2 % in Poland and 8.7 % in Czechia. Compared with the population of each EU country, the highest ratios of beneficiaries of temporary protection (BTPs) are seen in Czechia (34.0 per 100 000 inhabitants), Poland (26.9) and Estonia (24.7), while the EU level is 9.5. Since the start of the war, the EU has allocated around €15 billion to support Member States hosting displaced people from Ukraine, and an additional €4 billion are being made available from the EU’s Home Affairs funds.

Temporary protection was initially granted for one year and later extended twice, until March 2025, reaching the duration of three years, as laid down in the TPD. However, given the continued Russian attacks on civil and critical infrastructure across Ukraine, the temporary protection regime for displaced people from Ukraine was extended for another year, until March 2026. This was done on the basis of Article 4(2) TPD, according to which the Council of the EU, acting by qualified majority and on a proposal from the Commission, can extend temporary protection by up to one year where reasons for temporary protection persist. The Commission argued that safe and durable conditions for the return of displaced people to Ukraine were not in place. It referred to the ongoing uncertainty and volatility in Ukraine to show the need to continue protecting BTPs. Despite the emergence of divergent practices and policies owing to different interpretations of the TPD – such as scope and eligibility, reception support, access to rights, freedom of movement in the EU, and how to deal with circular movements to and from Ukraine –implementation of the directive has been assessed positively overall.

Extension of temporary protection until March 2027

With no end in sight to the war in Ukraine and the reasons for temporary protection persisting, the Commission proposed extending temporary protection for a fifth year, until 4 March 2027. According to the Commission, it is still not possible to return to Ukraine in safe and durable conditions. Moreover, further arrivals at scale cannot be excluded, owing to the difficult humanitarian conditions, broader volatility and the uncertainty of the situation in Ukraine. At the same, the risk to the efficient operation of the national asylum systems remains. The EU’s Home Affairs ministers unanimously agreed to the extension on 13 June, pending final adoption of the implementing decision by the Council.

The extension does not change the terms of the March 2022 decision as regards the categories of individuals to whom the temporary protection applies or the rights they enjoy. However, the Commission insisted on the need to ensure balanced responsibility-sharing among Member States, acknowledging that some Member States have been more impacted than others by the need to continue providing protection, particularly in terms of the numbers of BTPs hosted, often combined with large numbers of applicants for international protection or with housing shortages. Referring to the ruling of the Court of Justice of the EU in Case C-753/23 – Krasiliva of 27 February 2025, the new Council implementing decision states that Member States should now reject an application for temporary protection when it is apparent that the person concerned already benefits from temporary protection in another Member State. The extension – again based on Article 4(2) TPD – provides clarity to BTPs and allows Member States to undertake the necessary administrative and legal steps at national level, such as the renewal of BTPs’ residence permits. If there were to be a sustainable ceasefire before March 2027, which would make a safe and durable return of BTPs to Ukraine possible, the Commission could submit a proposal to the Council to bring temporary protection to an end.

Transition out of the temporary protection regime

In parallel with the need for continued protection of displaced people, the Commission seeks to pave the way for a smooth transition out of temporary protection. The idea is to ensure long-term and sustainable solutions for BTPs, take Ukraine’s capacity and reconstruction needs into account, and continue to avoid risks to the Member States’ national asylum systems. Those currently enjoying temporary protection need time to transition to other legal statuses that better represent their actual situation, and those who want to return to Ukraine – when the situation allows – need support. To help BTPs make informed decisions about their future, the Commission has therefore proposed a Council recommendation on a coordinated exit strategy and adopted a communication on a predictable and common European path for the future of the Ukrainians present today in the EU.

The Commission recommends, in particular, that Member States allow BTPs to transition towards national legal residence statuses, particularly those relating to employment, education, research or family reasons, or a long-term resident status where applicable. Moreover, it encourages them to enable BTPs who do not have access to national legal statuses to apply for a legal migration status governed by EU law, if they qualify for it. More specifically, the Commission refers to the EU Blue Card Directive, the Single Permit Directive and the Students and Researchers Directive. Although the proposal for a recommendation does not mention the possibility for BTPs to apply for asylum, the TPD provides for this possibility (Article 17), stating that the general laws on protection and aliens in the Member States apply when temporary protection ends (Article 20).

For those who are eligible and choose to stay in the EU, it is in the interest of both the BTPs and the Member States that inclusion and integration happen in the best way possible, as access to the labour market and to education brings benefits to those who wish to stay and to those who will return to Ukraine. The Commission therefore commits to continued funding and to the establishment of ‘unity hubs’ in the Member States, where BTPs can get information, referrals and advice. A Special Envoy for Ukrainians in the EU – former Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson – will support the setting-up of the hubs. Further funding and technical assistance, in addition to what has already been provided, will support the reintegration of both those returning home and those who decided to stay in Ukraine. Moreover, the Commission recommends that the Member States prepare for gradual and orderly return and reintegration, as Ukraine needs its people back to rebuild the country. Furthermore, the possibility of exploratory visits to Ukraine should be offered, in order for BTPs to check on their families, homes, or the situation in their communities, before deciding to return. Voluntary return programmes – with a limited and fixed duration of possibly up to one year – should be crafted to help people go back home safely and with dignity, without them ending up in a legal limbo once temporary protection ends. Rather than being individualised benefit packages, these voluntary return programmes should maintain social cohesion in Ukraine and bring benefits to the local community. In addition, options for vulnerable people, such as those undergoing medical treatment, and children who need to complete their education, should be devised. Finally, for all this to work, according to the proposal, it is important to have an accurate picture of the evolving situation.Member States are therefore encouraged to update their temporary protection data regularly and in a timely manner, and to exchange information with the other Member States and the Ukrainian authorities. The proposal still needs to be adopted by the Council; the European Parliament does not have a formal co-decision power for recommendations.

Read this ‘at a glance note’ on ‘Transitioning out of temporary protection for displaced people from Ukraine‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.