Türkiye’s high-stakes elections [What Think Tanks are thinking]

Written by Marcin Grajewski.

Türkiye holds presidential and parliamentary elections on 14 May 2023, which could mark a political turnaround after two decades of increasing autocratic rule of the conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its leader, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan faces an unprecedented challenge from the main opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the head of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and presidential nominee for the six-party Nation Alliance bloc.

The elections take place amid a serious economic crisis and what analysts say is democratic erosion under Erdogan’s government. Polls predict a record voter turnout, and a tight race between the incumbent president and Kilicdaroglu. Under the Erdogan party’s rule, the Muslim country has abandoned its secularist tradition and turned into an increasingly difficult partner for the West, including the European Union and NATO.

This note gathers links to the recent publications and commentaries from many international think tanks on Türkiye’s election, its relations with the EU and its internal and foreign policies.

Letter from Istanbul: Turkey has difficult years ahead
Brookings Institution, April 2023

Green politics could have an outsized impact on Türkiye’s elections
Carnegie Europe, April 2023

The strategic consequences of a Kılıçdaroğlu victory over Erdoğan
Carnegie Europe, April 2023

What the 2023 Turkish general election could mean for the EU-Turkey elections
Centre for European Reform, April 2023

Experts insights: Turkish elections
Clingendael, April 2023

Erdoğan is losing but the Turkish opposition is far from an assured victory
Democracy Paradox, April 2023

How the West should prepare for the Turkish elections
European Council on Foreign Relations, April 2023

La Turquie, nouveau leader des non-alignés? Analyse de son repositionnement géostratégique
Groupe de Recherche et d’Information sur la Paix et la Sécurité, April 2023

A new new Turkey? What an opposition victory would mean for Ankara’s foreign policy
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy, April 2023

Un équilibre entre sécurité et innovation: La vision de l’opposition turque sur les politiques numériques du pays
Institut français des relations internationales, April 2023

Les coalitions politiques en Turquie à la veille des élections de 2023
Institut français des relations internationales, April 2023

Turkey goes to the polls: What lies ahead for its relations with the EU?
Istituto Affari Internazionali, April 2023

EU-Turkey-UK triangulation: The key to Euro-Atlantic security
Istituto Affari Internazionali, April 2023

At a crossroads: What is at stake in Turkey‘s elections?
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, April 2023

What Turkey’s elections mean for Ukraine
Wilson Center, April 2023

Will earthquake be Erdogan’s Tarpeian rock?
Barcelona Centre for International Affairs, March 2023

The EU and Turkey after the elections: The start of a new chapter
Centre for European Reform, March 2023

Erdoğan is in danger
Council on Foreign Relations, March 2023

Has there been a rapprochement between Turkey and the West after the invasion of Ukraine
Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey, March 2023

Turkey vis-à-vis Russia’s war against Ukraine
Istituto Affari Internazionali, March 2023

Turkey’s foreign policy in the eastern Mediterranean: Peace-making in Cyprus at a cross-road
IPC-Mercator, March 2023

Consequences of the war in Ukraine: Two Areas of contention -Turkey and the Balkans
Rand Corporation, March 2023

Political and economic implications of the Turkish earthquakes:
Centralisation of power has eroded state capacity
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, March 2023

The politics of Türkiye’s earthquake
Carnegie Europe, February 2023

Sailing through the storm: Türkiye’s Black Sea strategyaAmidst the Russian-Ukrainian war
Carnegie Europe, February 2023

Turkey’s neutral stance in Ukraine: How sustainable will it be?
Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale, February 2023 

Turkey’s profound transformation matters to Europe
Carnegie Europe, January 2023

Is the EU ready for and/or willing to a change in Turkey?Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey, January 2023

From aid to inclusion: A better way to help Syrian refugees in Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan
European Council on Foreign Relations, January 2023

Turkey’s Kurds: Kingmakers in the upcoming elections?
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy, January 2023

Governance practices in Turkey: A comparative perspective
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy, January 2023

U.S., Turkey sanction ISIS financial network
Wilson Center, January 2023

Turkey’s global military footprint in 2022
Atlantic Council, December 2022

Turkey learns that hard power is a global common currency: Defense diplomacy elevates Ankara’s status on the international stage
Atlantic Council, December 2022

Understanding Turkey’s geostrategic posture
Carnegie Europe, November 2022

Bromance: Turkey’s activity in the Western Balkans
Centre for Eastern Studies, November 2023

Turkey’s Eurasian ambitions at a time of geopolitical uncertainty
Centre for European Policy Studies, November 2022

Read this briefing on ‘Türkiye’s high-stakes elections‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.