Erdoğan’s third term in Türkiye [What Think Tanks are thinking]

Written by Marcin Grajewski.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan won a third term in office in elections in May, after years of growing authoritarianism in his secular Muslim country which is also a NATO member state. His presidential track record includes growing conflict with the European Union and United States, as well as unorthodox economic policies that have recently undermined people’s living standards.

After his victory in a run-off vote, Erdoğan promised an assertive foreign policy and a return to normalised economic policies. Public finances are currently in tatters after high pre-election spending. Some analysts say this may have helped Erdoğan to win the ballot, along with a lack of independent media.

The appointments of liberal economists in the nearly fully reshuffled cabinet have raised hope that Türkiye will return to a more normal monetary policy and try to overhaul its economy, partly with the aim of attracting foreign investors. On the political front, Türkiye continues to block Sweden’s accession to NATO, claiming that the Scandinavian country harbours activists which Ankara regards as terrorists.

This note gathers links to publications and commentaries from many international think tanks on the implications of Erdoğan’s victory. More publications on Türkiye can be found in a previous edition of ‘What think tanks are thinking’.

Continuity and change in Turkish foreign policy
Atlantic Council, June 2023

Turkish-Ukrainian defense partnership in a new geopolitical realm
Atlantic Council, June 2023

What to expect from Erdoğan’s new term
Carnegie Europe, June 2023

Turkey’s geopolitical role: Between national ambitions, Western anchors and Russian sway
Carnegie Europe, IEMed, June 2023

Turkey: New government, old challenges
Centre for Eastern Studies, June 2023

Growing crisis surrounding the Turkish lira
Centre for Eastern Studies, June 2023

Erdogan’s victory and the West
Centre for European Reform, June 2023

How will geopolitics shape Turkey’s international future?
Chatham House, June 2023

Turkey’s increasing balance sheet risks
Council on Foreign Relations, June 2023

Turkey’s growing foreign policy ambitions
Council on Foreign Relations, June 2023

The president’s inbox recap: Erdogan’s victory
Council on Foreign Relations, June 2023

Erdoğan reloaded: What to expect and what should the EU do?
European Policy Centre, June 2023

Erdoğan’s third term: Strengthening EU support for Syrian refugees in Türkiye
European Policy Centre, June 2023

Outlining EU-Turkey relations: The impacts of the Ukraine war and Turkey’s crucial elections
Finnish Institute for International Affairs, June 2023

Prospects for Turkish-Syrian reconciliation
Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale

Erdoğan’s election victory
International Institute for Strategic Studies, June 2023

Turquie: Deux semaines après la réélection de Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, où en est-on?
Institut des relations internationales et stratégiques, June 2023

Le conflit russo-ukrainien : une opportunité pour la Turquie
Institut français des relations internationales, June 2023

Towards a different approach to Greek-Turkish relations: The logic of mutual benefit with emphasis on the environmental dimension
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy, June 2023

Erdoğan’s re-election as president raises concerns among allies
Polish Institute of International Affairs, June 2023

Handling Turkey-West relations after Erdogan’s election victory: Engage, understand, overcome
Wilson Center, June 2023

Five more years for Erdogan: What’s first on his agenda?
Atlantic Council May 2023

What the world should expect from Erdogan now
Atlantic Council May 2023

Despite Erdogan’s win, the EU should not give up on a reset with Turkey
Centre for European Policy Studies, May 2023

With or without Erdoğan, we need to talk about refugees again
Clingendael, May 2023

How should the West engage with Turkey during Erdoğan’s third Presidential term?
Foreign Policy Centre, May 2023

Stability after all?
German Marshal Fund, May 2023

Will the Turkish government change the course of its economic policy?
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, May 2023

Read this briefing on ‘Erdoğan’s third term in Türkiye‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.