By Members' Research Service / June 26, 2025

Economic Outlook Quarterly: Fragmented trade, untapped potential at home

The EU’s trade-dependent economy faces uncertainty from global trade policy shifts, prompting calls to strengthen domestic demand.

Economic Outlook Quarterly: Fragmented trade, untapped potential at home

EU inflation Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) monthly data, annual rate of change %

Written by Alessandro D’Alfonso, Martin Höflmayr and Giulio Sabbati.

The EU’s trade-dependent economy faces uncertainty from global trade policy shifts, prompting calls to strengthen domestic demand. Economic growth forecasts for the years ahead have been downgraded, reflecting this uncertainty. Anticipatory trade to avoid US tariffs peaked in March 2025, as EU exports to the US rose by 59 % in the first quarter of 2025, but has subsided since. The final phase of the Next Generation EU recovery instrument is expected to support public investment and economic activity, but EU countries must step up efforts – in some cases significantly – to ensure full implementation of their national recovery and resilience plans by 31 August 2026.

Read this infographic on ‘Economic Outlook Quarterly: Fragmented trade, untapped potential at home‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.

RRF milestones and targets still to be assessed

GDP growth in the EU
Quarterly, % change compared to same period in previous year — RRF milestones and targets still to be assessed

Categories: Economic and Social Policies, EU Financing / Budgetary Affairs, PUBLICATIONS Tags: Alessandro D'Alfonso, briefings, budget, economic recovery, economics and monetary issues, energy policy, EPRS briefings, EU budget, European Union, fiscal policy, Giulio Sabbati, gross domestic product, inflation, infographics, Martin Höflmayr, national accounts

Members' Research Service

The central task of the Members Research Service is to ensure that all Members of the European Parliament are provided with analysis of, and research on, policy issues relating to the European Union, in order to assist them in their parliamentary work.

Youth and social media

Taxation of ultra-high-net-worth individuals

Horizon Europe 2028-2034: 10th EU research and innovation framework programme [EU Legislation in Progress]

Energy drinks consumption in minors: EU and national approaches

EU supply chains in the era of trade fragmentation: Impacts, policies and current debate

Understanding EU policies for people with disabilities

Combating HIV/AIDS: Progress and EU action

What if generative AI is reaching its limits?

Plenary round-up – November II 2025

Outcome of the informal EU leaders’ meeting of 24 November 2025

Rare diseases – strengthening EU action

The Pact for the Mediterranean: Co-creating a space of peace, prosperity and stability through a genuine partnership

Comments are closed for this post.

What Europe does for me

EU legislation in progress

EU Legislation in progress timeline

In focus

We write about

Social Media

Blogroll

Disclaimer and Copyright statement

The content of all documents (and articles) contained in this blog is the sole responsibility of the author and any opinions expressed therein do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Parliament. It is addressed to the Members and staff of the EP for their parliamentary work. Reproduction and translation for non-commercial purposes are authorised, provided the source is acknowledged and the European Parliament is given prior notice and sent a copy.
For a comprehensive description of our cookie and data protection policies, please visit Terms and Conditions page.
Copyright © European Union, 2014-2025. All rights reserved.