Ukraine

Written by Jakub Przetacznik.

The EU is providing Ukraine with strong political and economic support, and future EU accession should support its reconstruction and modernisation, the cost of which is currently estimated at over €450 billion. This year’s Ukraine Recovery Conference will seek to improve coordination and cooperation among its allies.

EU-Ukraine relations

In 2014, the EU and Ukraine signed an association agreement and established a deep and comprehensive free trade area, deepening bilateral political and trade relations. Since Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU and its Member States have committed over €143 billion in financial, economic, humanitarian, and military support for Ukraine, and have welcomed refugees. The sum includes €50 billion for the Ukraine Facility, approved in February, its recovery and its path to EU accession. The EU has also granted annual renewable autonomous trade measures (ATM) – suspending outstanding customs duties and quotas for Ukrainian products. An extension of the ATM until June 2025, reinforcing protection for sensitive agricultural products was approved by Parliament in plenary on 23 April 2024.

EU accession process

Ukraine made a formal request to join the EU after Russia began its full-scale invasion in February 2022. It was granted candidate country status in June 2022, and it unveiled its roadmap for decentralisation reform in November 2023, with a view to EU accession. In December 2023, EU Member States agreed to open accession negotiations. The European Commission submitted a draft negotiating framework for Ukraine on 12 March 2024 and, in its conclusions of 21‑22 March, the European Council invited the Council to ‘adopt them and to take work forward without delay’. The draft framework has three parts: accession negotiation principles; six negotiation clusters; and procedures. Once approved, the first intergovernmental conference will take place, the framework will be made public, and formal negotiations will begin. The key challenges for EU enlargement relate to agricultural, budgetary and cohesion policy reform, security and defence policy, and the mutual defence clause. Ukraine will have to make progress on its reform agenda, not least on fighting corruption and implementing the entire acquis.

Reconstruction and recovery

At the end of 2023, the cost of Ukraine’s reconstruction and recovery was estimated at €452.8 billion over 10 years. The sectors with the greatest needs are housing (17 % of the total), transport (15 %), commerce and industry (14 %), agriculture (12 %), energy (10 %), social protection and livelihoods (9 %), and explosive hazard management (7 %). The sum is equal to 2.8 times Ukraine’s estimated 2023 nominal gross domestic product; to meet these needs will require international support. It is the joint assessment of Ukraine, the World Bank and the Commission that effective reconstruction will be crucial to secure adequate funding and resources, ensure a safe and secure environment, and overcome political challenges.

Ukraine Recovery Conference 2024

This year’s Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC2024) will be held on 11 and 12 June in Berlin. The goal is to mobilise international support for recovery, reconstruction, reform and modernisation. URC2024 will focus on four themes: EU accession and related reforms; recovery of municipalities and regions; private-sector mobilisation for reconstruction and economic growth; and social recovery and human capital for the future of Ukraine. Integral to URC2024 will be the Recovery Forum, designed to offer a platform for dialogue, matchmaking and collaboration, and to enable local government and business representatives to interact.

Read this ‘at a glance note’ on ‘Ukraine‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.