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Economic and Social Policies, PUBLICATIONS

The coronavirus crisis: Options for economic recovery [What Think Tanks are thinking]

Written by Marcin Grajewski,

© starlineart / Adobe Stock

As the coronavirus crisis keeps the world in its grip, analysts ponder what future measures could stimulate recovery from the deep recession expected in its aftermath, with a focus, in particular, on the European Commission’s plans and the growth-boosting fund recently proposed by France and Germany. Analysts also continue to contemplate what geopolitical order will emerge from the crisis, as well as the impact on individual regions such as Europe, Africa and Asia, or particular countries such as Saudi Arabia, Japan or Syria.

This note offers links to recent commentaries and reports from international think tanks on coronavirus and related issues. Earlier publications on the topic can be found in the previous edition in this series, published by EPRS on 26 May.

Who’s first wins? International crisis response to Covid-19
European Union Institute for Security Studies, May 2020

The European Union’s SURE plan to safeguard employment: A small step forward
Bruegel, May 2020

The Franco-German bond to the rescue
Centre for European Policy Studies, May 2020

How Germany’s Constitutional Court jump-started the Franco-German engine
Council on Foreign Relations, May 2020

The EU recovery fund is a historic step, almost
Centre for European Reform, May 2020

Europe’s political oppositions in the coronavirus crisis
German Marshall Fund, May 2020

How to repair multilateralism after Covid-19
Council on Foreign Relations, May 2020

When the Franco–German ‘couple’ starts making sense again
Istituto Affari Internazionali, May 2020

Pushing the EU to a Hamiltonian moment
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik, May 2020

The European Central Bank in the Covid-19 crisis: Whatever it takes, within its mandate
Bruegel, May 2020

How Germany’s Constitutional Court jump-started the Franco-German engine
European Council on Foreign Relations, May 2020

The Coronavirus must push Europe to rescue multilateralism
Carnegie Europe, May 2020

How to repair multilateralism after Covid-19
European Council on Foreign Relations, May 2020

Does restricting travel during a pandemic work?
Chatham House, May 2020

Covid-19 aside, it’s coal-fired power that threatens us most
Friends of Europe, May 2020

Weaker together or weaker apart? Great power relations after the coronavirus
Egmont, May 2020

How will Covid-19 impact Brexit? The collision of two giant policy imperatives
Bruegel, May 2020

Three ways Covid-19 will cause economic divergence in Europe
Centre for European Reform, May 2020

Save markets to save the single market
Bruegel, May 2020

Covid-19 and the climate: Energy nexus
Egmont, May 2020

Democracy delayed: Covid-19’s effect on Latin America’s politics
Chatham House, May 2020

Coronavirus crisis: Exploring the human impact on nature
Chatham House, May 2020

Living with coronavirus
Chatham House, May 2020

Dans l’après Covid, comment financer une relance verte?
Confrontations Europe, May 2020

In many of the hardest-hit states, Covid-19 small business relief is lagging
Brookings Institution, May 2020

G20 in the spotlight: The fight against Covid-19
Istituto Affari Internazionali, May 2020

Treacherous Mirror: Misinterpreting Italian Euroscepticism
Istituto Affari Internazionali, May 2020

How societies can fight pandemics and climate change at the same time
Atlantic Council, May 2020

How the coronavirus impacts Japan’s prospects for constitutional revision
Atlantic Council, May 2020

Americans want global engagement on fighting Covid-19
Brookings Institution, May 2020

L’économie et la diplomatie: Les deux défis de la Chine dans le monde post-Covid-19
Institut français des relations internationales, May 2020

Democracy is the missing link in EU Coronavirus recovery plans
Carnegie Europe, May 2020

To reopen the economy safely, we need both liability protection and hazard pay
Brookings Institution, May 2020

In der Corona-Krise aus der WTO-Krise
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik, May 2020

Après le covid-19 le transport aérien en europe: Le temps de la décision
Fondation pour l’innovation politique, May 2020

L’Inde et le Pakistan à l’épreuve du coronavirus
Fondation pour la recherche stratégique, May 2020

La convergence ‘médias et télécoms’ à l’épreuve du Covid-19
Fondation Robert Schuman, May 2020

How does the Covid-19 pandemic affect LGBTI+ community in Turkey?
Heinrich Böll Stiftung, May 2020

The Covid-19 pandemic and conflict dynamics in Syria
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, May 2020

How Covid-19 affected the nation’s schools: New data gives insights for planning
Rand Corporation, May 2020

L’Arabie Saoudite face au COVID-19: l’ambition contrariée
Institut français des relations internationales, May 2020

Conflict, health cooperation and Covid-19 in Myanmar
International Crisis Group, May 2020

Sudan’s terrible combination: An existing humanitarian crisis and Covid-19
Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale, May 2020


Read this briefing on ‘The coronavirus crisis: Options for economic recovery‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.

Read all EPRS publications on the coronavirus outbreak

Discussion

One thought on “The coronavirus crisis: Options for economic recovery [What Think Tanks are thinking]

  1. The Solution for developing nations like Pakistan – Exports

    The export strategy of Pakistan,should be based on export of water,labour,earth, defense and LDC benefits.Any other model will fail,as competitive nations,with deep pockets,will offer financial,fiscal and asset subsidies,to offset any advantage,that Pakistan,has w.r.t labour cost and geography (besides excellent logistics,and regulatory structures)dindooohindoo

    Setting up manufacturing capacities,to cater to the local Pakistani market and exporting the surplus,is not viable,as Pakistan does not have economies of scale (even to realise the geometric impact,of lower labour costs).Planning capacities on that model,leads to the DISASTER of the Indian NPAs,of 350-400 Billion USD,with exports dead,and the inability of Indians,to compete,with the PRC.

    Export of Water – is export of animal proteins,exotic fruits and vegetables and agri to the GCC,EU and other parts of the world.Water from the skies or the earth,by rarefaction or condensation or precipitation,in the form of hail,rain or snow,is purely a function of geography,in a time span of a few decades.Over a period of 3-4000 years,some disasters can occur,like the disappearance of Saraswati (in Pakistan) or the diversion of rivers etc.

    Thus,water captures the fertility and agro-ecoonomic opportunities and variety of Pakistani soil,and also,the geo-strategic location of Pakistan (w.r.t access to GCC,Ports,Cheapest Point of Purchase for UN/FAO/WHO procurements for Afghanistan etc.)

    In Pakistan,Water is a Perpetual Resource,UNLIKE in India.In addition,many nations in the EU allow a COO certificate linked to a Geography,in that exporting nation, to give ADDITIONAL DUTY/SUBSIDY AND QUOTA BENEFITS. These are agriculture and agri-derivatives,like wine.Pakistan is the prime candidate, for the same,for exotic fruits etc., which have valuable and critical,downstream applications,in the EU.

    Export of Earth – is export of minerals,which ALSO,includes industries like Cement (which is export of lime,limestone and coal).Once the Coal Fields of Pakistan,are tapped,then it would include sale of power,as the cheapest way to transport power,is at the speed of light,via a grid – especially,when the Grid is set up by other nations.

    Pakistani Mineral Resources are almost perpetual,and in areas with very low density of population and ample water.Thus the scope for TOLERATING pollution is higher – and so,like in Nuke Power – if some latitude is granted w.r.t pollution,wastes, effluents, safety and environment – mining costs can crash exponentially.For a Perpetual reserve,with an exchange rate of Rs 160/USD,it is akin to burying US Dollars, 1000 meters in the earth,and starving on top of the earth.For a nation,with finite reserves (in the short term),there is an opportunity cost,of exports – in terms of the fact that,in 2023 (say),prices of several ores might be 2-5 times,current rates – and so,they can raise USD,from bankers,liening the mining reserves.

    Export of Defense – In conjunction with the PRC and the PLA/PLN.PLAF,Pakistan can perfect the technique of customising and innovating Chinese Defense Technology,for their use,and exporting lower technologies or the excess capacities to Africa,Central Asia,LATAM,South America and the Middle East (excluding the quasi Nato nations).With Chines=se Financial Aid, extensive credits can be given.There are many nations in the world,which the PRC would NOT like to make defense exports to.

    Export of Labour – Pakistan needs to be practical,to use low cost manufacturing technologies,which are labour intensive and require moderate power consumption ,and some pollutive impact.Low Capital Costs,will lower the Operating and Financial Risk,and the skilled but CHEAPER labour cost,can be exported OUT.There would be several such technologies,several products and several markets.

    LDC – Lastly,Pakistan has to maximise the LDC benefits,using Chinese Capital and SEZs – with an appropriate mix of Chinese Labour and Domestic Input Costs,in the SEZ units, so that the COO is Pakistan,and the LDC benefits are availed of.

    SEZs – The SEZ policy of Pakistan has to be synthesised with the LDC gains,to ensure that the costs to the SEZ,are the lowest among all LDCs in the world.However,the Costs are not to be evaluated,as the Nominal Costs.So the land lease and other charges,payable by the SEZ to the Pakistani State, might not be the lowest – but on a NET differential Mode,w.r.t the Reduction in Logistics costs,to the Pakistani SEZ,it should be the LOWEST in the world. Once that is done,then as a thumb rule, to keep the laws simple, FREE EXIM needs to allowed and all Inputs (including Power etc.) should be sourcable,w/o caveats.So a SEZ should be able to set up a IPP/CPP/RPP, anywhere in Pakistan,with any fuel,with nil duty and taxes and the lowest wheeling and banking charges.

    Corporate Tax holidays should start AT THE CHOICE of the Investor,FROM THE YEAR after which the Brought forward losses,of the SEZ are exhausted.And the Tax holiday should be co-terminus,with that of the longest holiday,by any LDC.The period of limitation,for the Choice of initiating the holiday period,should be upto 5 years,from commercial operations.

    Basically,even if Pakistan waives the Wheeling charges etc.,it does not matter,as the aim is to bring in the ANCHOR and other Investors in the SEZ.Thereafter,the principles of Self Preservation by the SEZs,and its units,will ensure that,the State will find ingenious ways to earn revenue – provided that,1st the ANCHOR comes in,and then, that the SEZ and the SEZ units,make money !

    Like

    Posted by samir sardana | September 17, 2020, 20:13

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