Written by Marcin Grajewski.
Uncertainty is growing over the recovery of the European economy from the recession generated by the Covid-19 pandemic. The European Commission has painted an optimistic growth scenario in its most recent forecast, with the economy expected to expand by 5 per cent and 4.3 per cent in 2021 and 2022 respectively. However, an increasing number of analysts see the potential for growth dampened by new restrictions in the run-up to Christmas this year given a fourth/fifth wave of the pandemic currently gripping Europe, compounded by the discovery of a new variant of the coronavirus. Higher inflation, partly resulting from high energy prices and disrupted supply chains, is also seen as a threat to the economy of the euro area and the wider EU, as are high public debt levels in many countries.
This note gathers links to recent publications and commentaries from many international think tanks on the state of the European economy and on debates on how to reform it.
How robust is the EU recovery?
Centre for European Policy Studies, November 2021
A transatlantic divide? Transitory inflation in Europe but persistent in the US
Centre for European Policy Studies, November 2021
Rethinking EU economic governance: The Stability and Growth Pact
European Policy Centre, November 2021
Why the EU’s recovery fund should be permanent
Centre for European Reform, November 2021
Instruments of a strategic foreign economic policy
Bruegel, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, DIW Berlin, November 2021
Including home-ownership costs in the inflation indicator is not just a technical issue
Bruegel, November 2021
Fiscal arithmetic and risk of sovereign insolvency
Bruegel, November 2021
Next Generation EU borrowing: A first assessment
Bruegel, November 2021
The new euro area inflation indicator and target: The right reset?
Bruegel, November 2021
Does money growth tell us anything about inflation?
Bruegel, November 2021
Growth and inflation after the pandemic in the EU
Bruegel, November 2021
Is the risk of stagflation real?
Bruegel, November 2021
Covid-19 financial aid and productivity: Has support been well spent?
Bruegel, November 2021
Zu den Verteilungseffekten der derzeit hohen Inflationsraten
Ifo Berlin, November 2021
Rethinking EU economic governance: The Stability and Growth Pact
European Policy Centre, November 2021
How can the CMU and Banking Union contribute to European sovereignty and economic recovery?
Confrontations Europe, November 2021
Reinventing the European banking sector
Institut Montaigne, November 2021
Supply chain disruptions: The risks and consequences
Rand Corporation, November 2021
How Germany’s coalition negotiations could change the EU’s political landscape
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, November 2021
Keynesian supply shocks and Hayekian secondary deflations
Ludwig von Mises Institute, November 2021
Don’t let up: The EU needs to maintain high standards for its banking sector as the European economy emerges from the Covid-19 pandemic
Bruegel, October 2021
Germany’s post-pandemic current account surplus
Bruegel, October 2021
The European energy price spike: Overcoming the fossil fuel crisis
Jacques Delors Institute, October 2021
Why have Europe’s energy prices spiked and what can the EU do about them?
Centre for European Reform, October 2021
Rising energy prices: What European solutions?
Fondation Robert Schuman, October 2021
The consequences of ‘modern monetary theory’
Confrontations Europe, October 2021
Purchasing power suffers from inflation such as ketchup and toothpaste
Itinera, October 2021
Inflation in the euro area: Factors mostly have only a temporary effect, but risk of prolonged elevated inflation remains
DIW, October 2021
The effects of natural disasters on price stability in the euro area
DIW, October 2021
Fiscal rules in a post-Covid brave new world: No need to sprint
Centre for European Policy Studies, October 2021
Climate action and Europe’s fiscal debate: Politics and possibilities
E3G, October 2021
Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2021: Crisis is gradually being overcome – align action with lower growth
Ifo, September 2021
Ifo Economic Forecast Autumn 2021: Supply bottlenecks in manufacturing slow overall economic recovery
Ifo, September 2021
Monetary arithmetic and inflation risk
Bruegel, September 2021
Remote work, EU labour markets and wage inequality
Bruegel, September 2021
The pandemic’s uncertain impact on productivity
Bruegel, September 2021
Brexit and European finance: Prolonged limbo
Bruegel, September 2021
Can climate change be tackled without ditching economic growth?
Bruegel, September 2021
Euroraum im Herbst 2021
Institut für Weltwirtschaft Kiel, September 2021
Arbeitsintensive Unternehmen sind ein Katalysator für Geldpolitik und ihre Verteilungseffekte
DIW, September 2021
A revised European Semester under centralised management: The risk of overlooking social policy
Egmont, September 2021
EU employment dynamics: The pandemic years and beyond
European Trade Union Institute, September 2021
Options for inclusive post-pandemic labour markets
Migration Policy Institute, September 2021
The rising cost of housing
Centre for European Policy Studies, July 2021
Europe shouldn’t worry about inflation
Centre for European Reform, July 2021
Will European Union recovery spending be enough to fill digital investment gaps?
Bruegel, July 2021
Recovery and resilience: A first assessment
Lisbon Council, July 2021
Reforming the European Stability Mechanism: Too much but never enough
Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, July 2021
How can a reform of the Stability and Growth Pact foster sound fiscal policies?
Centre for European Policy, June 2021
Read this briefing on ‘Prospects for EU economic recovery‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.
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