Ukraine: Awaiting Russia’s offensive [What Think Tanks are thinking]

Written by Marcin Grajewski.

During his first visit to the European Parliament and the European Council, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appealed to the European Union to provide his country with aircraft and other military equipment needed to repel Russia’s further military aggression. Greeted with a standing ovation in the European Parliament, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine was not only defending its own independence, but also the ‘European way of life’. EU leaders vowed to stand by Ukraine with steadfast support, but Member States have so far failed to make a firm commitment to send fighter jets to Kyiv.

In recent weeks, Russia has been pouring tens of thousands of freshly mobilised soldiers into Ukraine in a move likely in anticipation of a big offensive in February, coinciding with the first anniversary of the war. Russia has boasted of initial gains, but progress has been incremental at best. Overall, there is little movement at the front-line on either side, as the armies are locked in battle in snow-covered trenches, which both sides describe as the deadliest fighting of the war.

This note gathers links to the recent publications and commentaries from many international think tanks on Russia’s war on Ukraine. Earlier analyses of the war can be found in a previous edition of the ‘What Think Tanks are Thinking’ series.

More intensive arms supplies and training for the Ukrainian army
Centre for Eastern Studies, February 2023

Ukraine business resilience can inform reconstruction
Chatham House, February 2023

How Ukraine’s invention and resilience confounds Russia
Chatham House, February 2023

Germany too slow in arming Ukraine
Chatham House, February 2023

NATO can learn from Ukraine’s military innovation
Chatham House, February 2023

Expert insights: Russia and Ukraine
Clingendael, February 2023

Europe: Crossing the East-West divide
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik, February 2023

Sailing through the storm: Türkiye’s Black Sea strategy amidst the Russian-Ukrainian war
European Union Institute for Security Studies, February 2023

Leopard 2 tanks and Ukraine’s war: Keeping an eye on the geopolitical ball
Friends of Europe, February 2023

The Russians aren’t complying with the New START Nuclear Arms Control Treaty: Now what?
Heritage Foundation, February 2023

What is America’s strategic interest in Ukraine?
Hoover Institution, February 2023

Russian offensive campaign update
Institute for the Study of War, February 2023

Russian offensive campaign assessment
Institute for the Study of War, February 2023

A tale of two wars and the pitfalls of success
Rand Corporation, February 2023

Waffenlieferungen an die Ukraine
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, February 2023

No time for timidity in Ukraine
Brookings Institution, January 2023

How the war in Ukraine hinders US-Russian nuclear arms control
Brookings Institution, January 2023

The long war in Ukraine
Brookings Institution, Foreign Affairs, January 2023

Refugees must be central to the reconstruction of Ukraine
Brookings Institution, January 2023

Scholz’s tank decision upends Germany’s long affair with Russia
Carnegie Europe, January 2023

Nearly one year in: How does this war end?
Carnegie Europe, January 2023

Ukraine: A wave of dismissals against a background of corruption
Centre for Eastern Studies, January 2023

Western tanks won’t reach Ukraine before spring
Centre for Eastern Studies, January 2023

Germany, Russia and Ukraine: From ‘turning point’ to missing the point
Centre for European Reform, January 2023

Is European defence missing its moment?
Centre for European Reform, January 2023

The West is sending light tanks to Ukraine: Will they make a difference?
Council on Foreign Relations, January 2023

The Scholz way
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik, January 2023

Send in the Leopards: Why Western allies should deliver tanks to Ukraine
European Council on Foreign Relations, January 2023

Digging in for the long haul in Ukraine: The army of the East and the army of the West
Friends of Europe, January 2023

When the Ukraine war ends, the winner will be…Turkey
Friends of Europe, January 2023

How the West can help Ukraine: Three strategies for achieving a Ukrainian victory and rebirth
GLOBSEC, January 2023

Ukrainian refugees in Visegrad countries: Societal attitudes and challenges of accommodating people fleeing thewar
GLOBSEC, January 2023

Interpol is doing Russia’s dirty work
Heritage Foundation, January 2023

How to get a breakthrough in Ukraine
Hoover Institution, January 2023

La Russie en guerre et le monde musulman
Institut français des relations internationales, January 2023

Russia’s war in Ukraine: What are the emerging military lessons?
Institute for International and Strategic Studies, January 2023

Keeping the right balance in supporting Ukraine
International Crisis Group, January 2023

La neutralité, une idée périmée en Europe?
Jacques Delors Institute, January 2023

Russia’s war on Ukraine: A sanctions timeline
Peterson institute for International Economics, January 2023

Avoiding a long war in Ukraine, gun violence, migrant surges
Rand Corporation, January 2023

The opposite of war fatigue: How European support for Ukraine keeps getting stronger Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, January 2023

Read this briefing on ‘Ukraine: Awaiting Russia’s offensive‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.