Latest on Russia’s war on Ukraine [What Think Tanks are thinking]

Written by Marcin Grajewski.

As Ukraine continues its counter-offensive against the Russian invaders, the NATO summit in Vilnius vowed unwavering support for the country, and took decisions to simplify its path towards membership of the Western military alliance. NATO leaders said they would be able to invite Ukraine to join the Alliance once the country meets certain conditions.

They declared continued support for Ukraine’s deterrence and defence in the short, medium, and long term, as well as for turning the Comprehensive Assistance Package (CAP) into a multi-year programme for Ukraine. This assistance will help rebuild the Ukrainian security and defence sector and move Ukraine towards full interoperability with NATO.

The NATO summit declarations fell short of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s expectations for receiving a clearer path to enter the Alliance. However, he praised NATO’s decision to scrap the need for Kyiv to complete a preparatory Membership Action Plan to join NATO. The Alliance and Ukraine also held the inaugural meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council to manage the relationship, which reaffirmed that ‘Ukraine’s future is in NATO’.

On the summit’s side-lines, Group of Seven (G7) developed countries unveiled an international framework to boost Ukraine’s long-term security against Russia. A number of other military packages were announced at bilateral meetings between Zelenskyy and individual NATO leaders.

This note gathers links to the recent publications and commentaries from many international think tanks on Russia’s war on Ukraine. Earlier analyses on the war can be found in a previous edition of ‘What Think Tanks are Thinking’. Publications on NATO released ahead of its July summit can be found in another item in the series.

Ukraine’s defense doctrine will define country’s future
Atlantic Council, July 2023

Ukraine needs NATO membership, not an ‘Israel model’
Atlantic Council, July 2023

Western Europe is still falling short in NATO’s east
Council on Foreign Relations, Foreign Affairs, July 2023

Ukraine takes its place in the European security system while Russia fades
Wilson Center, July 2023

Putin’s nuclear threats will escalate as Ukraine’s counteroffensive unfolds
Atlantic Council, June 2023

Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive is a key moment but long-term resolve remains crucial
Atlantic Council, June 2023

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the day after the war: A view from southern Europe
Barcelona Centre for International Affairs, June 2023

Between a rock and a hard place: The EU response to national import bans on Ukrainian grain
Bruegel, June 2023

European public opinion remains supportive of Ukraine
Bruegel, June 2023

The resilience and trauma of Ukraine’s civil society
Carnegie Europe, June 2023

Ukrainian oligarchs and their businesses: their fading importance Centre for Eastern Studies, June 2023

Ukraine’s progress towards NATO membership: Going from Bucharest to Vilnius without moving?
Centre for European Reform, June 2023

Demining Ukraine: An urgent but under-resourced priority
Center for Strategic and International Studies, June 2023

The impact of the Kakhovka dam breach on the new Ukrainian counteroffensive
Center for Strategic and International Studies, June 2023

Tsar Nicholas I’s Crimean War and Putin’s in Ukraine: Plus ça change
Centre for European Policy Studies, June 2023

Ukraine’s recovery depends on security guarantees
Chatham House, June 2023

Ukrainians demand more inclusion in post-war recovery
Chatham House, June 2023

How much aid has the U.S. sent Ukraine?
Council on Foreign Relations, July 2023

China and Ukraine: The Chinese debate about Russia’s war and its meaning for the world
European Council on Foreign Relations, July 2023

How bad is Ukraine’s humanitarian crisis a year later?
Council on Foreign Relations, June 2023

How should NATO think about Ukrainian membership after Russia’s coup attempt?
Council on Foreign Relations, June 2023

European defence in a new geopolitical environment
Egmont, June 2023

War for Ukraine and the rediscovery of geopolitics: Must the EU draw new battlelines or keep an open door?
Egmont, June 2023

On the outside looking in: Why NATO should invite Ukraine to join the alliance at the Vilnius summit
European Council on Foreign Relations, July 2023

Mobilising investments for Ukraine reconstruction: Strengthening the Team Europe approach
European Centre for Development Policy Management, June 2023

A compromise to support Ukraine’s exports
European Policy Centre, June 2023

Dogs of war: Russia’s corporate warriors in armed conflicts
European Union Institute for Strategic Studies, June 2023

Gendering Europe’s security and recovery responses to Ukraine
EUROPEUM, June 2023

Pursuing justice for international crimes in Ukraine: A patchwork of multi-level and long-running efforts
Finnish Institute of International Affairs, June 2023

After the war: How to keep Europe safe
Friends of Europe, June 2023

Ukraine’s anti-corruption front
German Marshal Fund, June 2023

The war in Ukraine and Europe’s geopolitical awakening
Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques, June 2023

The EU and the transformed nuclear context since the war in Ukraine
Istituto Affari Internazionali, June 2023

Reconstructing Ukraine: Creating a freer, more prosperous, and secure future
Rand Corporation, June 2023

Public expenditure and tax policy for the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine
Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, June 2023

The Russian invasion and the risks to global financial stability
Vox Ukraine, June 2023

Foreign support to Ukraine: Evidence from a database of military, financial, and humanitarian aid
Vox Ukraine, June 2023

Ukraine’s demography in the second year of the full-fledged war
Wilson Center, June 2023

Ukraine’s growing defense tech prowess can help defeat Russia
Atlantic Council, May 2023

Exploring the secrets of Ukraine’s successful wartime diplomacy
Atlantic Council, May 2023

Backstopping Ukraine’s long-term security: Toward an Atlantic-Asian security community
Brookings Institution, May 2023

Ukraine: Perception shapes victory and defeat
Egmont, May 2023

Uncovering uncomfortable truths: The geopolitics of EU gas imports in the aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine
Egmont, May 2023

The Ukraine war and European identity
European Council on Foreign Relations, May 2023

The Ukraine war and its implications for European security
Wilfried Martens Centre, May 2023

Read this briefing on ‘Latest on Russia’s war on Ukraine‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.