Outlook for the meetings of EU leaders, 21-22 March 2024

Written by Ralf Drachenberg and Rebecca Torpey.

At the 21-22 March European Council meeting, discussions will focus on Ukraine, security and defence, the Middle East and enlargement. Concerning security and defence, EU leaders will consider the new European defence industrial strategy presented by the European Commission. On Ukraine, they are expected to reiterate their commitment to supporting the country, and welcome the establishment of a Ukraine Assistance Fund regarding military aid as well as the 13th package of sanctions against Russia. The leaders may also discuss anew the use of revenues from frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine. As the Middle East remains a delicate topic, with differing positions, concrete conclusions with clear positions are unlikely. On enlargement, EU leaders will probably welcome the Commission’s recommendation to open negotiations with Bosnia and Herzegovina. As is usual in the spring, EU leaders will endorse the policy priorities of the annual sustainable growth survey, and meet in an inclusive Euro Summit format.

1.     General

Following the customary opening address by the President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, the Prime Minister of Belgium, Alexander De Croo, as leader of the country currently holding the six-month presidency of the Council of the EU, is expected to provide an overview of progress made in implementing previous European Council conclusions.

Following recent national elections in Portugal, this will probably be the last time that long-time European Council member Antonio Costa represents Portugal at a regular European Council meeting. As regards Bulgaria, it is not yet clear who will represent the country: after Nikolai Denkov’s resignation as prime minister on 6 March 2024, Mariya Gabriel is expected to become the next prime minister in accordance with the power-sharing agreement between the political parties in the Bulgarian government. If Gabriel is sworn in on time, she will attend the European Council; if not, according to the Bulgarian Constitution, it would be the President, Rumen Radev, attending.

EU leaders will also have a lunch with UN Secretary-General António Guterres and meet with their counterparts of the countries in the European Economic Area, namely Iceland, Norway and Liechtenstein, to mark the 30th anniversary of their relationship.

2.     European Council meeting

Ukraine

Ukraine remains top of the agenda at the European Council more than two years after Russia launched its war of aggression against Ukraine, and ten years since the illegal annexation of Crimea and Sevastopol. The European Council will reiterate its willingness to support Ukraine for as long as it takes, while condemning the actions of Russia and those who support its war. In line with this, EU leaders will welcome the adoption of the 13th package of sanctions, and most likely also restate their support for ongoing efforts to prosecute the Russian leadership for their crimes. Back in February, the European Council had welcomed the agreement reached on the Council Decision and Council Regulation concerning revenues from frozen Russian assets. Recently, however, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed using the profits to buy much needed military equipment for Ukraine. This idea has received pushback from some Member States, as the general agreement was that the money would be used to help to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction. After the 12 March meeting of the Economic and Financial Affairs Council, the Belgian finance minister stated that there should be a proposal by the end of that week on the mobilisation of profits from frozen Russian assets. Therefore, it is likely that the March European Council will review progress and define the next steps on the use of these profits to support Ukraine.

The European Council may welcome the Council decision to establish the Ukraine Assistance Fund (UAF), as part of the ongoing reform of the European Peace Facility (EPF). High Representative (HR/VP) Josep Borrell initially proposed the creation of the fund, which would be part of the EPF, but dedicated solely to Ukraine. The €5 billion fund will be used to refund Member States for their military donations to Ukraine. There have been disagreements among Member States regarding the specifics of the scheme. France has demanded a ‘buy European’ clause – some of the biggest players in the EU defence industry are French companies. Meanwhile, Germany has asked for bilateral aid to be taken into consideration when determining how much each Member State should contribute to the fund – Germany is the largest European military donor to Ukraine. Nevertheless, Coreper managed to reach a compromise whereby around 50 % of bilateral aid would be taken into account when considering contributions, and there would initially be flexibility on the ‘buy European’ aspect.

The EU failed to reach its target of sending a million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine in 2023, this – combined with a lack of agreement on US military funding – has left Ukraine without vital military support as it continues defend against Russia’s war machine. However, EU leaders may welcome a recent Czech-led initiative that has been launched to obtain 800 000 units of ammunition that could be delivered within weeks. The European Council may also support the bilateral agreements providing security commitments that Ukraine has concluded with several Member States.

The European Council will most likely also condemn the illegal ‘elections’ held by Russia in occupied Ukrainian territories (Crimea, Sevastopol, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzia and Kherson). Following the death of Alexei Navalny, Russia’s most high-profile political prisoner, EU Heads of State or Government may also criticise the mistreatment of political prisoners in Russia.

Security and defence

The war in Ukraine has lent new impetus to discussions on EU security and defence. The European Council may reiterate its commitment to increasing defence expenditure and to boosting EU defence industry competitiveness, in line with the Strategic Compass and the Versailles Declaration. The Strategic Compass 2024 annual report is due to be presented in the course of the spring. If released before the European Council meeting (as was last year’s annual report), then EU leaders may review the findings and discuss implementation of the Strategic Compass.

At the December 2023 meeting, the European Council had asked the HR/VP and the Commission to present the European defence industrial strategy as soon as possible, including a proposal for a European defence investment programme (EDIP). EU leaders are likely to welcome the strategy, which was presented on 5 March, and invite the Council to take work forward. The EDIP will give access to €1.5 billion in funds over three years to support the defence industry. However, European Commissioner Thierry Breton has stated that the industry could need closer to €100 billion. Estonia, France and Poland have also called for increased funds for the EU’s defence industry. In that context, French President Emmanuel Macron and Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, then followed by the Belgian prime minister, have suggested issuing joint debt to support the weapons industry. However, Germany, the Netherlands, and other ‘frugal’ Member States, are against the use of common bonds. Ways of finding extra funding for defence investment may be a discussion point during the meeting.

Middle East

The European Council did not manage to agree on extensive conclusions on the Middle East at its two most recent meetings (December 2023 and February 2024). The topic remains extremely sensitive, with Member States holding differing views on many aspects. However, the topic has been put on the agenda, which shows a willingness to address recent developments at the upcoming meeting. EU leaders are likely to reiterate: i) their condemnation of Hamas; ii) their call for the return of all hostages; iii) their support for the two-state solution – as the best foundation for lasting peace; and iv) Israel’s right to defend itself in line with international humanitarian law.

Since the 7 October attack by Hamas, over 31 000 Palestinians have reportedly been killed by Israeli forces. This has led to accusations that Israel is not doing enough to protect civilian lives as it carries out its war on Hamas. On 14 February, the Irish Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, and Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, sent a letter to the Commission requesting an ‘urgent review’ to determine whether Israel was complying with the obligations (respect for human rights and democratic principles) included in the EU-Israel Association Agreement. The Taoiseach stated that he believed the EU-Israel Association Agreement would be discussed at the March European Council meeting.

Concerns are mounting regarding a potential Israeli military operation in Rafah, where 1.5 million displaced Palestinians are thought to be sheltering. On 16 February, the HR/VP released a statement calling on the Israeli government not to launch a military operation in Rafah. After the Foreign Affairs Council meeting on 19 February, Borrell confirmed that all but one of the Member States supported the statement. The lone Member State against the statement is thought to be Hungary.

With famine said to be ‘imminent’ in Gaza, EU leaders may welcome the aid that, on 12 March, began making its way to Gaza through the Cyprus-Gaza humanitarian corridor. The mission involves several international partners including the United Arab Emirates and United States.

A key point in the discussion at the European Council’s October 2023 meeting was whether or not it should call for (a) humanitarian pause(s). The wording has now evolved, with some, including von der Leyen, calling for ‘an immediate humanitarian pause leading to a sustainable ceasefire’. However, it is still to be seen whether all Member States will agree to such a wording. In December 2023, a number of EU countries voted against or abstained in a UN General Assembly vote calling for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza.

EU leaders may also condemn the violence carried out by Israeli settlers in the West Bank and Jerusalem. Yet there is no unity among Member States on this matter. The HR/VP has confirmed that, after suggesting imposing sanctions on violent settlers at the Munich Security Conference, not all Member States were in agreement with this proposal. The Council has been working on sanctions against extremist Israeli settlers who are breaking international law through the illegal expansion of Israeli settlements beyond pre-1967 borders, but Hungary and Czechia have opposed these sanctions, further demonstrating the divisions between Member states. Some countries, such as France, have already unilaterally placed sanctions on extremist settlers.

Enlargement

On 12 March, during the European Parliament’s plenary debate ahead of the European Council meeting, von der Leyen announced that the Commission had decided to recommend that the Council open accession negotiations with Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Member States such as Slovenia, Croatia, and Italy have supported BiH’s membership prospects; others, including Austria, have called for the membership process of Ukraine and Moldova to also include BiH. The Member States will officially decide whether or not to open negotiations. As requested by the European Council, the Commission has put forward proposals for draft negotiating frameworks for Ukraine and Moldova. These may also be included in discussions on enlargement in the European Council.

Other items

Migration

EU leaders will discuss migration, following up on the discussion held in December 2023, during which they underlined the need to pursue a strategic and comprehensive approach in this area. The leaders will take stock of progress on orientations given at previous meetings.

Agriculture

In response to widespread farmers’ protests, the European Council discussed the challenges facing the agriculture sector at its 1 February meeting, committing to keep the issue under review. Twenty‑two EU agriculture ministers (all except Belgium, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden) have called on the Commission to ‘propose concrete steps forward and precise solutions’ to the issues outlined at the 26 February meeting of agriculture and fisheries ministers. In response, on 15 March, the Commission put forward legislative proposals to simplify certain elements of the common agricultural policy, and a document on the food supply chain. EU leaders will probably discuss the issues facing the sector and the Commission’s proposals.

Strategic Agenda 2024-2029

The indicative leaders’ agenda for 2024 announced a debate on the ‘strategic agenda and internal reforms’. European Council President Charles Michel will probably take stock of reflections so far in the process of setting the new long-term priorities for the EU, the strategic agenda 2024-2029. He will also update EU-leaders on the second series of meetings, each with a small number of EU leaders, representing a mix of geographical regions, political party affiliations and opinions. Possible dates for these meetings are 1-2 April and 11-12 April, ahead of the 16-17 April European Council meeting, which is expected to discuss a first draft. The European Council is scheduled to adopt the strategic agenda 2024-2029 at the end of June.

European Semester

As part of the European Semester process, EU leaders are expected to endorse policy priorities for the 2024 annual sustainable growth survey and the Council recommendation on euro-area economic policy. The discussion on the high-level report written by Enrico Letta on the future of single market, requested by EU leaders for the March meeting, may be postponed owing to the packed agenda. Meanwhile, in a non-paper, 15 Member States, led by Finland, have proposed ideas for further developing the EU’s single market.

3.     Euro Summit

The Euro Summit will convene on Friday 22 March to discuss the economic situation and policy coordination. It will take stock of Eurogroup work on capital markets union, since well‑functioning capital markets are viewed as essential to ensure EU competitiveness.

Read this briefing on ‘Outlook for the meetings of EU leaders, 21-22 March 2024‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.