
- India possesses essential demographic, political and economic ingredients for long-term success, but also has major constraints to overcome, such as regionalism, nationalism, and sorting out relations with their neighbours, Pakistan and China.
- Over forty years, labour compensation as part of the national income shrank, while the share of capital increased. This trend correlates with the rise in inequality. Digitalisation, globalisation and demographic change might further decline the labour share.
- Artificial intelligence can diminish or increase democratic freedoms. It can polarise or enliven the political debate. It will probably take a central place in pro- or anti-democratic beliefs. One thing is certain: AI will force democracies and authoritarian states to adapt.
- Donald Trump has shattered political rules, reinterpreted the role of the US President like none of his predecessors, and changed relations with Congress, the judiciary and bureaucracy, but is his administration an exception, or a new standard, and is he a threat to the republic?
- Remittances sent from migrants abroad are a significant and stable source of income, exceeding direct investment globally. They increasingly help women, and could be revolutionised with crypto-currencies, however nationalism and anti-terror legislation may limit remittance income.
- With rising wealth and demand, in 2030, China might no longer be able to cater to increasing food demands. Political sensitivities and environmental issues come into play and future global land-grabbing by China might not be sufficient to meet its population’s rising demand for meat.
- 40 to 60-year economic cycles explain the patterns seen after the inventions of the steam engine, railroads, chemical and electro-technology, the automobile and lately information technology. The next cycle might be related to ecology, ageing and biotechnology.
- Urban public procurement is tied to trends such as a shift of power to cities, greater administrative flexibility and greater use of the private sector. Adequate monitoring of data might solve ecological issues and spread participation.
- A ‘deep fake’ is disinformation based on digitally manipulated data, for example videos. Due to the plausibility of such forms of data, they have a great negative impact. Artificial intelligence and declining trust might make this worse. What will such practices do to journalism and privacy standards?
- Technically possible, geoengineering tools involve interventions on land, in the oceans or in outer space. Although many techniques remain hypothetical, concerns are raised. What are the uncertainties? Can a climate-safe future be created?
Read the complete study on ‘Global Trendometer – Essays on medium- and long-term global trends – July 2018‘ on the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.
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Excellent! Great overview presented in a wonderful way. Thank you!