NATO’s July summit in Vilnius [What Think Tanks are thinking]

Written by Marcin Grajewski.

Leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will meet in Vilnius on 11-12 July against the backdrop of a complex and volatile security environment. Russia’s war on Ukraine, and the latter country’s future membership of the military alliance will dominate the annual summit, according to many public statements. The meeting will aim to send a strong signal of support for Ukraine, reiterating NATO’s open door policy towards the country’s membership, increasing military aid, pledging to make the Ukrainian military more interoperable with NATO forces and, possibly, outlining future security guarantees for Kyiv.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is seeking a commitment that his country will join NATO as soon as the war is over, but only some Allies support that request, while others are more cautious. NATO leaders will discuss creating a new NATO-Ukraine Council, which would boost relations between the two, compared with the current NATO-Ukraine commission. NATO will also address strengthening its eastern flank, updating the Alliance’s current plans to defend the region from possible Russian aggression.

NATO will also re-examine its Strategic Concept adopted last year in Madrid, discuss security challenges posed by China, and the required increases in the member states’ defence spending. Allies are expected to press Türkiye to drop its opposition to Sweden’s membership of NATO. NATO countries hope to find a replacement for, or prolong the term of, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who is formally due to step down in September.

This note gathers links to the recent publications and commentaries from many international think tanks on the NATO summit and related issues. Earlier analyses of Russia’s war on Ukraine can be found in a previous edition of the ‘What Think Tanks are Thinking’ series.

European public opinion remains supportive of Ukraine
Bruegel, June 2023

Ukraine needs a trio of security guarantees, EU accession, and reconstruction
Carnegie Europe, June 2023

Giving Ukraine NATO membership is the best way to prevent world war III in Europe
Centre for European Reform, June 2023

Ukraine’s progress towards NATO membership: Going from Bucharest to Vilnius without moving?
Centre for European Reform, June 2023

Here are five difficult issues for the NATO summit
Chatham House, June 2023

Ukraine’s recovery depends on security guarantees
Chatham House, June 2023

NATO stands ready to prevent escalation of the war in Ukraine
Egmont, June 2023

Compromise at Vilnius: Ukraine’s path to NATO membership
European Council on Foreign Relations, June 2023

Countdown until the NATO Vilnius Summit: Priorities and expectations in 2023
European Policy Centre, June 2023

Memo to NATO’s future Secretary General
European Policy Centre, June 2023

What security guarantees for Ukraine?
Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique, June 2023

Ukraine’s reconstruction will depend on security guarantees
International Institute for Security Studies, June 2023

The war in Ukraine and Europe’s geopolitical awakening
Institut des relations internationales et stratégiques, June 2023

Not allowing Ukraine into NATO and the EU is risky
Wilson Center, June 2023

Backstopping Ukraine’s long-term security: Toward an Atlantic-Asian security community
Brookings Institution, May 2023

High time for Sweden’s NATO membership
Egmont, May 2023

Forging the future of NATO
Heritage Foundation, May 2023

Indo-Pacific cooperation with European NATO countries: Security partnership initiatives and perspectives
Eastern European Studies Centre, May 2023

Cooperation in an era of strategic competition: EU-NATO relations in the context of war and rivalry
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, May 2023

Defining success for NATO’s Vilnius summit: A primer
Atlantic Council, April 2023

Arming Ukraine without crossing Russia’s red lines
Brookings Institution, April 2023

Why Ukraine needs security guarantees
Carnegie Europe, April 2023

Finland becomes NATO’s thirty-first member state
Centre for Eastern Studies, April 2023

What is NATO?
Council on Foreign Relations, April 2023

Franco-German cooperation will be crucial for the future of European security
Centre for European Policy Studies, April 2023

Finland brings great value to NATO’s future deterrence
Chatham House, April 2023

Advancing military mobility in Europe: An uphill battle
European Policy Centre, April 2023

Could NATO membership be a game-changer for the Western Balkans engagement with China?
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy, April 2023

A treaty change for the European Defence Union
Istituto Affari Internazionali, April 2023

Strengthening deterrence a priority for NATO at the Vilnius Summit
Polish Institute for International Affairs, April 2023

Finland Joins NATO, Sweden’s accession remains uncertain
Rand Corporation, April 2023

War, peace, and the international system after Ukraine
Brookings institution, March 2023

One step back, two steps forward: The EU, NATO and emerging and disruptive technologies
Brussels School of Governance, March 2023

Is Hungary a reliable EU and NATO member?
Carnegie Europe, March 2023

NATO can learn from Ukraine’s military innovation
Chatham House, March 2023

No longer off the radar: NATO‘s enlargement to the north and its implications for the Baltic states
Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, March 2023

NATO enlargement: The future of the open-door policy
GLOBSEC, March 2023

The U.S. and its allies must understand and respond to Russia’s nuclear threats
Heritage Foundation, March 2023

United States and NATO versus BRICS and SCO
Institut Européen des Relations Internationales, March 2023

The war against Ukraine and Russia’s position in Europe’s security order
Istituto Affari Internazionali, March 2023

Space: Exploring NATO’s final frontier
Istituto Affari Internazionali, March 2023

Evaluating NATO Enlargement: From Cold War Victory to the Russia-Ukraine War
Brookings Institution, February 2023

NATO and the invasion, one year on
Centre for International and Strategic Studies, February 2023

Baltic defence: Why NATO should persuade Turkey to admit Sweden
European Council on Foreign Relations, February 2023

How to beat Russia: What armed forces in NATO should learn from Ukraine’s homeland defense
GLOBSEC, February 2023

Liberté, Union européenne, OTAN: La société ukrainienne a fait son choix
Institut français des relations internationales, February 2023

Défense européenne, OTAN, Ukraine : quelques points sur quelques «i»
Institut Jacques Delors, February 2023

Next level partnership: Bolstering EU_NATO cooperation to counter hybrid threats in the western Balkans
European Union Institute for Strategic Studies, February 2023

The War against Ukraine and its lessons for NATO militaries: Food for thought
Istituto Affari Internazionali, February 2023

Back to the roots: Nato returns to territorial defence in Europe Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale, February 2023

Read this briefing on ‘NATO’s July summit in Vilnius‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.