‘Sahelexit’ in West Africa: Implications for ECOWAS and the EU

Written by Eric Pichon.

At the end of January 2024, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger announced their withdrawal (referred to as ‘Sahelexit’ by several media outlets) from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). This withdrawal – with immediate effect according to the departing states, within a one-year deadline according to the ECOWAS Treaty – presents a complex set of challenges for the region.

ECOWAS, initially designed to promote regional economic integration, has over the years adopted protocols to uphold democracy and good governance. On several occasions it has adopted sanctions against unconstitutional changes of government in its member states, like those that recently occurred in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and Niger. However, these actions have had mixed results, with negative effects on most ECOWAS member states, hindering economic cooperation and increasing trade costs, thereby complicating regional integration efforts and increasing humanitarian crises. The three states presented their withdrawal as a reaction to sanctions.

Despite the lifting of sanctions, the three states are still considering bringing their new Alliance of Sahelian States (AES) out of ECOWAS. The withdrawal will probably not mitigate the negative effects of the sanctions; it also risks weakening existing security mechanisms and international cooperation, already made fragile by the forced departure of UN and Western forces from these states, while Russian private military companies appear to be taking over in the three AES countries.

The impact on the EU is manifold. The rising influence of Russia and other players, coupled with the increasingly negative perception of France in its former colonies, is already challenging the EU’s clout in the region. EU security and migration strategies throughout West Africa depend significantly on the leverage of ECOWAS over its member states. As this leverage is reduced by the withdrawal of three of them, this could potentially escalate security risks and further destabilise neighbouring regions. Migration flows might become less controlled, potentially increasing irregular migration to Europe.

Read the complete briefing on ‘‘Sahelexit’ in West Africa: Implications for ECOWAS and the EU‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.